The 2025 Big 12 Championship Game is officially locked in, and it’s about as heavyweight as the conference could have hoped for. No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU will square off Saturday morning at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, a matchup that felt inevitable for most of the season. With Arizona State’s loss to Arizona on Friday night eliminating the final mathematical chaos scenario, the Red Raiders and Cougars now get the stage to themselves.
A year ago, the Big 12 was defined by a four-team gridlock at the top. This time around, there was no need to pull out tiebreakers or multi-team comparisons. Texas Tech and BYU separated early, stayed consistent late, and even gave fans a preview when they met in Lubbock in November for a top-10 showdown. Saturday’s winner walks away with a title, but the stakes don’t stop there—both teams are trying to shape their College Football Playoff destiny, and the ripple effects could be massive.
Texas Tech: A Fast Rise Fueled by Defense, Depth, and a Little Portal Magic
Few teams in college football made a stronger preseason bet than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders embraced the transfer portal, rebuilt their staff after replacing both coordinators, and somehow came out of the overhaul not just functional but dominant. They enter championship weekend leading the Big 12 in nearly every major statistical category on both sides of the ball. Total offense? Check. Total defense? Check. Scoring? Also check.
Their only loss came when starting quarterback Behren Morton was sidelined earlier in the year. Since then, they’ve ripped off a streak of double-digit wins—ten of them, to be exact—which is something no Big 12 team has managed in quite a while. Last week’s dismantling of UCF only solidified what the numbers already suggested: this team is not just good; it’s historically efficient.
With Morton still battling injuries, running back Cameron Dickey has taken on a bigger role and thrived. He sits near the top of the league in rushing and leads the Big 12 in touchdowns. But the true identity of this team rests on the defense. Texas Tech boasts two Nagurski Award finalists in Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey, a rare combination that illustrates just how disruptive the unit has been.
The program hasn’t played for a Big 12 championship since the conference’s inception and hasn’t won an outright league title since 1955. Fans have waited generations for a moment that feels this legitimate. Saturday is their shot to end decades of frustration.
BYU: A Defensive Machine With a Freshman Quarterback Who Has Changed Everything
BYU enters Arlington having quietly built one of the nation’s best two-year résumés. The Cougars are 21-3 over their last 24 games, a remarkable feat made all the more surprising by their quarterback turnover. After losing Jake Retzlaff to the portal, BYU handed the reins to true freshman Bear Bachmeier—yes, a freshman who didn’t even arrive until fall camp.
Somehow, that transition has been seamless. Bachmeier has balanced poise and explosiveness, passing for more than 2,300 yards and adding more than 500 on the ground. His ability to create outside structure has been a lifeline for a BYU offense that prioritizes physicality and efficiency.
Still, BYU’s calling card is defense. Linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker headline a unit that rarely gives opponents clean looks, while safety Faletau Satuala has emerged as one of the league’s best breakout players. Running back LJ Martin gives the offense the steady ground production that complements BYU’s methodical, deliberate style.
This is BYU’s first appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game since joining the conference in the 2023 expansion wave. The program has not claimed a conference crown since 2011, before its independence era began. That drought adds extra incentive as they step into Arlington with an opportunity to rewrite their own chapter.
Prediction: Texas Tech’s Momentum Wins Out
These teams have already seen each other once this season, and that November matchup in Lubbock leaned heavily in Texas Tech’s favor. The Red Raiders swarmed BYU’s offense and didn’t allow meaningful scoring until late, largely due to timely turnovers and airtight defense.
BYU’s coaching staff will almost certainly open the playbook wider for the rematch, especially with Bachmeier’s development since their first meeting. Expect more vertical shots and more attempts to stress Texas Tech’s linebackers in space. The Cougars have the tools and defensive toughness to keep the game competitive into the second half.
But Texas Tech is operating at an unusually high level right now. Every win seems to reinforce the team’s cohesion and confidence. With a playoff berth essentially secured and a possible first-round bye in play, the Red Raiders are unlikely to let this opportunity slip away.
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