With just days remaining before Texas voters head to the polls, a newly released survey from Emerson College offers a snapshot of two closely watched Senate primary contests that remain highly competitive on both sides of the aisle.
The poll shows narrow leads for state Rep. James Talarico in the Democratic primary and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican race. However, both contests fall within the margin of error, underscoring the uncertainty that still surrounds the outcomes.
Tight Margins on Both Tickets
Among likely Democratic primary voters, 52 percent said they support Talarico, while 47 percent backed Rep. Jasmine Crockett. On the Republican side, Paxton received support from 40 percent of likely GOP voters. Sen. John Cornyn followed closely with 36 percent, while Rep. Wesley Hunt drew 17 percent.
Because these numbers are within the poll’s stated margins of error, neither race currently shows a decisive frontrunner.
The stakes are particularly high in the Republican contest. Cornyn is seeking a fifth term in the U.S. Senate but faces a serious challenge from Paxton, a prominent figure in Texas politics who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and later acquitted by the Texas Senate.
President Donald Trump has not endorsed any of the Republican candidates, stating last month that he likes “all three of them, actually.”
Early Voting Trends
The survey also highlighted differences between early voters and those planning to cast ballots on election day.
According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, early Democratic voters leaned toward Talarico, with 58 percent backing him compared to 41 percent for Crockett. Among those who plan to vote on election day, the trend reverses: about half support Crockett, while 39 percent favor Talarico.
A similar split appears in the Republican primary. Early voters gave Cornyn a slight edge over Paxton, 38 percent to 34 percent. Among election day voters, however, Paxton led 44 percent to 32 percent.
Kimball noted that Hunt’s presence in the Republican field “appears likely to hold Paxton and Cornyn” below the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff election scheduled for May 26.
National Attention on Texas
The competitive primaries have drawn attention beyond the state. Cornyn and Senate Majority Leader John Thune have warned that if Paxton secures the nomination, a Democratic challenger—either Talarico or Crockett—could mount a viable general election campaign.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won his final race in 1988, a fact often cited to highlight the state’s long-standing Republican advantage in federal contests.
Polling Methodology
The Emerson College survey included 850 likely Democratic voters or individuals who had already cast ballots, as well as 547 likely Republican voters or early participants. The margin of error was 3.3 percent for Democrats and 4.1 percent for Republicans.
Early voting began on Feb. 17, and with the primary just days away, both races remain fluid. The coming results will determine not only party nominees but also whether either contest moves to a runoff—extending an already closely watched election season in one of the nation’s most politically significant states.
