Hot Posts

6/recent/ticker-posts

Money, messaging set stage for costly Texas GOP attorney general runoff


The Republican primary for Texas attorney general has produced an unusual showdown heading into a May 26 runoff. On one side stands a sitting member of Congress with years of legal and political experience. On the other is a wealthy state senator who lacks courtroom experience but brought millions of dollars to the race.

State Sen. Mayes Middleton stunned political observers by finishing first in the March 3 GOP primary despite entering the contest with far less legal experience than his opponents. Middleton captured the top spot with a seven-point lead over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, though he fell short of the majority required to avoid a runoff. The two conservative candidates will now face off again in a second round of voting that is expected to be just as expensive as the first.

Middleton’s success was fueled largely by his financial advantage. The senator, who also serves as CEO of his family’s oil and gas company, poured roughly $15 million of his own money into his campaign. The massive self-funding effort allowed him to dominate advertising across the state and boost his name recognition among Republican voters.

Roy, a fourth-term congressman who had initially been viewed as the frontrunner, also relied heavily on his own resources but at a much smaller scale. He transferred about $2 million from his congressional campaign fund to support his attorney general bid. That left his federal campaign account with less than $250,000 remaining and placed him far behind Middleton’s financial firepower.

Political analysts say the role of money becomes even more significant in low-turnout primary contests. Only about 2 million voters participated in the Republican attorney general primary, representing roughly 11 percent of the state’s nearly 19 million registered voters. Turnout in the runoff is expected to be even lower. In the 2022 Republican attorney general runoff between Ken Paxton and George P. Bush, fewer than 1 million voters cast ballots.

Because the electorate is small and geographically spread across Texas, reaching voters requires substantial resources. Campaigns rely heavily on television advertising, digital outreach, direct mail and appearances at local party events to reach the limited pool of engaged voters.

Middleton took full advantage of those tools. His campaign spent more than $11 million on television ads alone. The messaging emphasized his alignment with President Donald Trump and highlighted conservative policy positions associated with the party’s MAGA wing. The ads also attacked Roy for what they portrayed as insufficient loyalty to Trump.

The spending blitz dramatically narrowed Middleton’s name recognition gap. Earlier polling had shown a large share of Republican voters unfamiliar with the state senator compared with the well-known congressman. By the time early voting began, that gap had shrunk significantly, helping Middleton gain traction with voters across the state.

Roy’s campaign focused more on his record and experience in government. Before being elected to Congress in 2018, Roy served as the first assistant attorney general under Ken Paxton, helping rebuild the office after Paxton first won the position in 2014. Roy also worked for former Texas governor Rick Perry and for U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz earlier in his career.

Now heading into the runoff, Roy is drawing a sharper contrast between his background and Middleton’s. The congressman has emphasized his legal and prosecutorial experience while questioning whether Middleton’s lack of courtroom work makes him suited to lead the attorney general’s office, which employs roughly 4,000 people including about 750 lawyers.

Middleton, meanwhile, continues to emphasize his conservative credentials and his support for President Trump. His campaign portrays the race as a choice between a consistent ally of the president and a Washington insider who has previously clashed with him.

Both candidates are also promoting conservative policy priorities aimed at energizing Republican voters. Middleton has pointed to his legislative record in the Texas Senate, including efforts focused on transgender participation in sports, bathroom access laws and restrictions on vaccine mandates. Roy has highlighted federal legislation he has supported on immigration enforcement, election policy and national security.

With only two candidates remaining, the runoff campaign is expected to become more aggressive in tone and even more expensive. Roy will likely need a significant surge in fundraising to compete with Middleton’s ability to self-finance. Meanwhile, Middleton’s strategy of heavy advertising and relentless outreach could continue to shape the race.

As the runoff approaches, one key question remains: whether Republican voters will prioritize legal experience or ideological alignment when selecting the state’s next attorney general. In a low-turnout contest dominated by messaging and money, the answer may determine the outcome in May.