As Texas Democrats head into the final days of their U.S. Senate primary, a central question has dominated the race between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin: which candidate would Republicans rather face in November?
Both candidates have argued they are best positioned to compete statewide in Texas, where Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race since 1988. Crockett has pledged to expand the electorate and mobilize new voters in an effort to flip the state. Talarico has promoted a broader coalition strategy, including outreach to Republicans and independents.
GOP signals and Democratic pushback
In the closing stretch of the primary, a pro-Talarico super PAC has run digital ads warning that Republicans are “boosting” Crockett and “spending thousands of dollars to make sure that Jasmine Crockett gets elected.” The ads reference reporting about a conservative group sending text messages highlighting Crockett’s hard-line stance on immigration enforcement, as well as ads from Gov. Greg Abbott that prominently feature her.
Crockett has dismissed the suggestion that Republicans are attempting to influence the Democratic primary.
“They love to kind of stir us up and have us decide to play off their rhetoric,” she told CNN last week, drawing a comparison to Republican criticism of Joe Biden during the 2024 presidential race. “Democrats need to focus on the prize.”
Talarico, for his part, criticized GOP involvement in the primary. “I would tell every Republican elected official to stay out of our business and stay out of our primary,” he said in an interview with a Dallas television reporter when asked about Abbott’s ads featuring Crockett.
Broader electability debate
The back-and-forth reflects a deeper debate over electability in a state that former President Donald Trump carried by 14 percentage points in 2024. Democrats see an opportunity in what they view as a favorable national environment and the possibility that Attorney General Ken Paxton — who has faced past legal and ethical controversies — could become the Republican nominee. Paxton is challenging longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary.
Cornyn has referred to Crockett’s candidacy as a “gift” and described Talarico as potentially “dangerous” if nominated. Paxton said Monday he does not have a preference between the two Democrats. “They’re both so liberal,” he told Dallas radio host Mark Davis.
A late January survey from the University of Houston tested multiple general election matchups involving Crockett or Talarico against Republican contenders and found no decisive advantage for either Democrat.
Crockett’s campaign has argued that her favorability ratings in multiple polls demonstrate resilience. “Part of electability is being able to weather the storm,” spokesperson Karrol Rimal said, adding that Republicans “who underestimate her do so at their own peril.”
Republican tactics and messaging
Some Republicans have used Crockett as a foil in their own campaigns. The conservative group American Sovereignty has sent texts to voters calling her “ICE’s worst nightmare” and linking to a debate clip in which she calls to “clean house” at the Department of Homeland Security. Immigration enforcement and funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement have been prominent issues in the campaign.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee previously released polling showing Crockett leading the Democratic field as early as July, underscoring its view that she would be a weaker general election candidate.
At the White House, Trump deputy chief of staff James Blair posted on social media that Republicans “should be very concerned about Jasmine Crockett’s surge” and called her “a real threat.” He later said his remarks were not intended to boost her candidacy, adding, “We don’t want that. She can win in Texas.”
Gov. Abbott, who faces little opposition in his primary, has featured Crockett in at least two ads during early voting, spending millions of dollars. Other Republican candidates in congressional and state legislative primaries have also included Crockett in advertisements criticizing “woke liberal extremists,” often grouping her with national Democratic figures.
Escalating tensions
The debate over GOP involvement has led to sharp exchanges. After a pro-Talarico group released an ad asserting that Republicans prefer Crockett and warning Democrats, “If she wins, we lose,” Crockett accused the group of darkening her skin in the ad and described the tactic as “straight-up racist.”
In her interview with CNN, Crockett questioned the premise that Republicans are clearly signaling a preference. “I don’t know who [telegraphs] who it is that they want to go against,” she said, noting that Abbott had spent millions of dollars on ads targeting her. “Right now the governor of Texas is spending over $3 million specifically against me, running ads, so it doesn’t sound like they want to go against me.”
She also pointed to Republican criticism of Biden during the 2024 campaign as an example of strategic messaging. “They did the exact same thing when they decided to tell all the Democrats that, Oh, Joe Biden is old, and, oh, he is senile, so therefore you guys need to get rid of Joe Biden,” Crockett said. “And so, what did we do? We went ahead and got rid of Joe Biden, and at the end of the day, what did they do? They elected an old, senile conman instead.”
