Voters in Texas head to the polls Tuesday for a set of closely watched U.S. Senate primaries that could shape the direction of the 2026 midterm elections and test the balance of power in Congress. With competitive contests unfolding in both parties, the races represent one of the earliest and most expensive battlegrounds of the cycle.
On the Republican side, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces a formidable challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, has long held a seat considered safely Republican. However, polling suggests a competitive primary that could force a runoff if no candidate surpasses 50 percent of the vote.
Recent polling averages compiled by High Plains Pundit show Paxton leading with 39 percent support to Cornyn’s 35 percent, while Hunt trails with 17 percent. With no candidate above the majority threshold, a May 26 runoff appears likely. The contest has drawn national attention as a measure of the strength of the GOP’s populist wing in a state that backed President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024.
All three Republican candidates have emphasized their alignment with Trump, though the president has not endorsed a contender. Cornyn and his allies have framed the race as a test of electability, arguing that his experience offers Republicans their best chance to retain the seat in November. Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House and later acquitted by the state Senate in 2023, has positioned himself as a conservative outsider willing to challenge party leadership. Hunt has campaigned on his record in Congress and military background, seeking to present himself as a fresh alternative.
Across the aisle, Democrats are engaged in their own competitive primary between state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett. The party is aiming for its first statewide victory in Texas since the 1990s, and strategists see the race as a rare opportunity amid Republican divisions.
Crockett, a progressive member of Congress, has built a national profile through high-profile clashes with Republican lawmakers and advocacy for Democratic priorities. She recently received an endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris. Talarico, a former middle school teacher and current seminarian, has campaigned on themes of bipartisanship and outreach to moderate voters. He gained statewide attention for his involvement in Democratic efforts to block a GOP-led redistricting plan last year.
Political observers describe the Democratic primary as a debate over strategy. One approach emphasizes mobilizing the party’s base through an energetic, combative message. The other centers on appealing to independents and disaffected Republicans in a state where the GOP has dominated statewide races for decades.
The stakes are underscored by record-breaking spending. According to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, more than $128 million has been spent on the race so far, making it the most expensive Senate primary contest in Texas history. Roughly $70 million of that total has supported Cornyn. Overall, Republican spending has significantly outpaced Democratic expenditures, though both parties have poured resources into television and digital advertising.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has reportedly spent millions on ads that some analysts say could indirectly boost Crockett’s visibility by tying her to national Democratic figures. The strategy highlights the broader effort by Republicans to frame the general election around national party dynamics.
Polling on potential general election matchups shows mixed results. Internal surveys conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee indicate Cornyn would hold an advantage over either Democrat in a head-to-head race. The same polling suggests Paxton would face a narrower path, defeating Crockett by a slim margin while trailing Talarico. A recent survey from the University of Texas at Tyler similarly found Cornyn favored in hypothetical matchups, though margins varied.
Despite the GOP’s longstanding dominance, Democrats point to signs of momentum. Early voting data compiled by VoteHub shows approximately 1.3 million ballots cast in the Republican primary as of Saturday, up from 1 million during the 2022 midterm cycle. On the Democratic side, roughly 1.5 million ballots have been cast, more than double the 625,000 recorded in 2022. The surge has fueled Democratic optimism about turnout and engagement.
Some analysts have drawn parallels to the 2018 midterms, when Democrats came within a few percentage points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz. Others caution against reading too much into the Texas results as a national bellwether, noting the state’s unique political landscape and demographic shifts.
Political science professor Mark Jones of Rice University has described a potential “perfect storm” scenario for Democrats, involving a weakened Republican nominee and favorable national conditions. Still, most analysts consider the eventual Republican nominee the favorite in November.
As voters cast ballots, the outcome will provide insight into the direction of both parties in Texas. For Republicans, the primary may reveal whether experience or insurgent conservatism carries greater weight with the base. For Democrats, it will signal whether their path to competitiveness lies in energizing core supporters or broadening their appeal. The results could set the tone not only for Texas but also for the broader midterm battle ahead.
