The first draft of Texas’ new congressional map is here, and with it, a firestorm of controversy. Unveiled this week by state Rep. Todd Hunter (R-Corpus Christi), the proposal seeks to add five new Republican seats — potentially giving the GOP control of nearly 80% of the state’s 38-member congressional delegation.
If passed and implemented in time for the 2026 midterms, the map could reshape the balance of power in Washington, and not just in Texas. With narrow majorities and intense partisanship in the U.S. House, every seat counts. And in a state growing rapidly — and diversely — this redraw touches not just lines on a map, but long-standing debates about race, representation, and democracy itself.
A Deeper Political Calculation
For Republicans, the move is strategic. Former President Donald Trump famously urged GOP state leaders to redraw maps more aggressively after the 2020 Census, and this proposal appears to answer that call. The changes center around Texas’ four largest metro areas — Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley — where Democrats have made recent inroads.
If all five of the targeted districts flip to the GOP, Republicans would go from holding 25 of 38 congressional seats (65%) to 30 of 38 (79%), a percentage that rivals the dominance Democrats enjoy in deep-blue states like California (82% of seats) and Illinois (also 82%).
But Democrats and civil rights advocates say the comparison doesn’t hold water.
“When you evaluate the demographics here in the State of Texas, as has been illustrated, the current map violates the law,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in Austin on Thursday. “This congressional map will double and triple down on the extreme racial gerrymandering that is silencing the voices of millions of Texans.”
How We Got Here: A History of Court Battles
Texas has a long history of legal battles over redistricting. Since the 1960s, the state has frequently been at the center of Voting Rights Act litigation. In the last two decades, courts have found Texas maps in violation of federal law on multiple occasions for diluting the power of minority voters.
The current map, drawn in 2021, is still under legal scrutiny. But ongoing litigation is paused while lawmakers push through this new plan. Should it pass, a new round of lawsuits is all but guaranteed — especially since the U.S. Department of Justice issued a July 7 warning identifying four current majority-minority coalition districts that could be unlawfully dismantled under the Supreme Court’s recent rulings.
South Texas: The GOP’s Gamble
Perhaps the most ambitious aspect of the plan lies in South Texas, where Republicans are targeting two seats previously held by Democrats: TX-28 and TX-34.
Fueled by Trump’s unexpected strength among Hispanic voters in 2020, the GOP believes these seats are now ripe for flipping. Under the new map:
TX-28 is pulled out of the San Antonio suburbs and pushed toward the border, absorbing conservative areas near Piedras Negras.
TX-34 moves north to pick up parts of Nueces County, flipping from a 54% Democratic district to a 52% Republican one.
But the changes are not foolproof. Notably, the 28th actually became two points more Democratic on paper, and Republicans are counting on continued Hispanic support even without Trump on the ballot — a risky bet.
“The electoral trend lines look good for the GOP,” said Dr. Mark P. Jones, a political scientist at Rice University. “But without Trump driving the turnout, those margins might not hold. South Texas isn’t a guaranteed red wave — it’s still a swing region.”
The Squeeze on Incumbents
In a map designed not just to gain seats but to eliminate Democratic challengers, several high-profile incumbents are now facing existential political threats:
In Austin, progressive Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX-35) and veteran Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX-37) are drawn into the same district. Casar’s seat shifts from D+40 to R+10, meaning he’d likely lose in a general election if he wins the primary.
In Houston, Rep. Al Green (D-TX-09) is paired with candidates running for the open TX-18 seat in a district that is redrawn from plurality Black to plurality Hispanic — a move that some argue dilutes Black voting power in a historically significant seat once held by Barbara Jordan.
In Dallas, Rep. Julie Johnson (D-TX-32) is effectively drawn out of her own seat, which now stretches far east into rural Republican territory. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30), a vocal Trump critic, sees her district become more solidly Democratic — perhaps an effort to contain her influence to one area.
A Racial Balancing Act
On paper, Republicans have attempted to maintain — or even increase — the number of Hispanic-majority districts. The proposal includes 12 Hispanic-majority or plurality districts, four of them among the five targeted for Republican pickups.
But critics say the numbers are misleading.
“Packing and cracking communities of color is still illegal, even if you leave some majority-Hispanic seats in place,” said Nina Perales, VP of litigation at the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund (MALDEF). “Just because the mapmakers included Hispanic voters doesn’t mean those voters have a fair shot at electing their preferred candidates.”
The Voting Rights Act (VRA) still requires that minority communities not only be present in a district, but that they have an effective opportunity to influence the outcome. That will be a major point in forthcoming lawsuits.
What to Watch in the Hearing
The Texas House Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting is scheduled to hold a 12-hour public hearing on Friday — likely the only opportunity for citizens and advocacy groups to weigh in before a legislative vote.
Activists are expected to pack the room in opposition. But barring a procedural meltdown or mass Democratic walkout (unlikely under current legislative rules), Republicans have the votes to approve the plan during this special session.
“They know it’s legally risky,” said one Democratic strategist. “But the calculus is simple: pass the map, take the heat, and let the courts sort it out.”
National Implications: The Bigger Picture
Texas isn’t redrawing its maps in a vacuum. Several red states — including Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee — have followed similar patterns of aggressive redistricting. Meanwhile, blue states like New York and Illinois have used their own partisan gerrymanders to blunt GOP gains.
With control of the U.S. House likely to hinge on just a few seats in 2026, Texas could be pivotal. A net gain of five GOP seats would complicate any path Democrats have to retake the chamber, even if they perform well elsewhere.
Conclusion: Democracy or Power Play?
To Republicans, this map is a long-overdue realignment reflecting where Texas is politically headed. To Democrats, it’s an affront to democratic fairness — designed to suppress emerging voices in a changing state.
Regardless of how the map is perceived, it’s clear the fight is only beginning. The new lines may soon be law, but whether they survive in court — and in the court of public opinion — remains to be seen.
