Texas voters could make history in November, whether they give Republican Gov. Greg Abbott an unprecedented fourth term or elect the state's first Democratic governor in more than three decades.

With Election Day approaching, Abbott faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin in a contest increasingly centered on affordability, property taxes, housing costs and the rapid expansion of data centers across Texas.

Recent polling suggests Abbott maintains a narrow advantage, although some earlier surveys showed Hinojosa ahead. The close numbers have added intrigue to a race with potentially historic consequences.

Here's where the candidates stand and what voters should know heading into November.

Both Candidates Cruise Through March Primaries

Abbott entered the general election after easily defeating his Republican primary challengers in March.

According to the Texas Secretary of State, Abbott captured approximately 82% of the Republican primary vote, a commanding victory that contrasted sharply with 2022, when several conservative challengers attempted to unseat him.

Hinojosa also secured a decisive primary victory, defeating eight Democratic opponents with nearly 59% of the vote.

Their victories set up a November showdown between a three-term Republican governor seeking to extend his tenure and a Democratic lawmaker hoping to break the GOP's decades-long hold on the governor's mansion.

Texas hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards, who left office in January 1995.

Affordability Takes Center Stage

While Abbott and Hinojosa disagree on numerous policies, both recognize that rising living costs are weighing heavily on Texas families.

Economic concerns, including inflation, employment and housing affordability, have consistently ranked among voters' leading priorities in major statewide surveys.

Abbott has responded with proposals targeting insurance premiums, homeownership expenses and health care costs.

His plans include creating a roof fortification grant program intended to reduce insurance-related expenses and allowing homebuilders to use pre-approved housing designs to accelerate construction.

The governor has also proposed limiting monthly copayments for inhalers and epinephrine to $25.

Property taxes represent another major component of Abbott's economic agenda.

His proposals include eliminating school district property taxes for homeowners, requiring two-thirds voter approval for certain tax increases and establishing a petition process allowing residents to force elections on reducing property tax rates.

Hinojosa Promises Direct Financial Relief

Hinojosa has taken a more populist approach, arguing that Abbott's policies have benefited corporations and wealthy interests while ordinary Texans struggle with increasing expenses.

One of her signature proposals would distribute $1,500 payments to every Texas household using money from the state's Economic Stabilization Fund, commonly known as the Rainy Day Fund.

She has also called for eliminating tax breaks benefiting large corporations and restricting private equity firms from purchasing residential properties.

Hinojosa argues that corporate ownership of housing contributes to affordability problems and makes it harder for Texas families to achieve homeownership.

The Democratic candidate has repeatedly criticized Abbott over property taxes, state contracts awarded without competitive bidding and Texas' new education savings account program.

She has labeled the education initiative “the voucher scam,” making opposition to the program a prominent part of her campaign.

Data Centers Become Major Campaign Issue

The rapid growth of data centers has emerged as another significant issue in the gubernatorial contest.

Hinojosa has called for a complete moratorium on approvals for new data center developments and urged lawmakers to address the issue during a special legislative session.

Abbott has also moved toward stricter oversight, directing state agencies to more aggressively regulate data center development.

In September, he instructed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to temporarily halt permits sought by data centers.

The issue has introduced another dimension to the candidates' competing visions for economic growth and state regulation.

Social Issues Remain a Dividing Line

Beyond economic policy, Abbott has continued emphasizing cultural and social issues, particularly disagreements over gender identity policies.

The Republican governor has criticized Hinojosa's positions on those issues, reflecting a strategy also seen in other statewide Republican campaigns.

Hinojosa, meanwhile, has largely concentrated her messaging on economic concerns, seeking to appeal to Texans frustrated by housing expenses, taxes and everyday costs.

The contrast highlights the different priorities each candidate believes will resonate most strongly with voters.

Polls Show Abbott Ahead, But Race Remains Competitive

Recent surveys indicate Abbott holds an advantage heading into the election, although the margins suggest a competitive contest.

According to polling information compiled by The New York Times, seven major surveys conducted between October 10 and October 21 placed Abbott ahead by margins ranging from one to five percentage points.

Those polls included surveys conducted by YouGov, ActiVote, Verasight, Beacon Research, Emerson College, Slingshot Strategies and the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs.

However, the polling picture hasn't consistently favored the incumbent.

Several September surveys, including polls from ReconMR, Marist and The New York Times, showed Hinojosa leading.

The shifting results suggest that neither campaign can take the outcome for granted, particularly with voter turnout potentially playing a decisive role.

A Historic Decision Awaits Texas Voters

The stakes extend beyond the candidates' competing policy proposals.

An Abbott victory would make him the first Texas governor elected to four terms, further cementing his place in state political history.

A Hinojosa victory would end more than three decades of Republican control of the governor's office and represent a major political breakthrough for Texas Democrats.

With affordability dominating voter concerns and recent polling showing relatively narrow margins, both campaigns have strong incentives to persuade undecided Texans.

Regardless of the outcome, the 2026 Texas governor's race promises to be one for the history books.