For decades, Republicans could generally count on Texas when drawing up their national Senate strategy. In 2026, they are spending like they can’t.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the major outside group affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, is increasing its advertising commitment in Texas to $100 million to support Republican nominee Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. The group has already spent nearly $70 million and, through its connected Texas PAC, plans to add another $30 million in advertising.
The size of the investment is noteworthy on its own. It becomes even more striking when viewed against Texas’ recent political history and the decisions Republicans made during their own primary.
Republicans have not lost a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988. Yet a national Republican group is now committing nine figures to the state at a time when the party is also spending heavily across a broad Senate map.
Some of the cost can be explained by Texas itself. Reaching voters across the state’s numerous media markets is expensive. But the scale of the spending also reflects how competitive the Paxton-Talarico contest has become. Public polling in September has shown a close race, with Talarico leading recent surveys.
There is also some irony in where Republicans now find themselves.
Thune and the Senate Leadership Fund backed Sen. John Cornyn during the Republican primary. At the time, Thune described that support as a “business decision.” The argument was essentially about resources: Cornyn’s fundraising strength and electoral history could allow Republicans to devote more money to contests elsewhere.
Paxton ultimately defeated Cornyn by 28 percentage points in the May runoff. Now, the financial concern Republicans raised during the primary has become a major feature of the general election. In 2025, Punchbowl News reported that SLF estimated a Paxton nomination could require $200 million to $250 million in spending to keep the seat Republican.
The $100 million SLF commitment does not reach that projection by itself, but it is only one part of the Republican investment.
Total Republican general-election spending in Texas has surpassed $140 million, according to The Texas Tribune. That includes more than $19 million from Lone Star Liberty PAC and more than $16 million from MAGA Inc., the super PAC associated with President Donald Trump’s political operation.
The spending balance has also changed dramatically.
Talarico entered the general election with a significant fundraising operation and raised $30 million between April and June, allowing his campaign to maintain a substantial advertising presence during the summer. The Republican outside spending surge has since changed the financial landscape.
In September, Texas PAC alone has spent nearly $66 million compared with approximately $22 million from Talarico. Including other Republican organizations, GOP-aligned spending has reached roughly $103 million for the month. Talarico has received about $3 million in September support from Lone Star Rising PAC.
One of the more notable pieces of the equation is what has not happened: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC have not committed advertising money to Texas, according to The Texas Tribune.
That leaves an unusual contrast six weeks before the November election. Republicans are putting national resources into protecting a Senate seat in a state that has been reliably Republican for decades, while the largest national Democratic Senate groups have so far stayed off the Texas airwaves.
Whether that spending ultimately changes voter preferences is something the election will determine. But the financial picture already tells a story about how much this race has changed.
