A newly released statewide poll suggests Texas voters could be headed toward one of the most competitive U.S. Senate contests in recent memory, with Republican nominee Ken Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico essentially tied heading into the early stages of the general election campaign.
According to a survey released Tuesday by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, Paxton holds a narrow 43% to 42% advantage over Talarico. With the poll carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, the race is statistically even and reflects a growing body of polling showing a highly competitive contest since both candidates secured their nominations last month.
The survey of 1,200 self-identified registered voters was conducted between June 5 and June 12, shortly after Paxton defeated longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a hard-fought Republican primary runoff.
Paxton Consolidates Republican Support
One of the most notable findings from the poll is Paxton’s success in bringing much of the Republican Party back together following a divisive primary battle.
The attorney general improved significantly from an April survey conducted by the same pollster. At that time, Paxton trailed Talarico by eight percentage points. In the latest poll, Paxton gained nine points, climbing from 34% support to 43%.
The shift appears largely driven by Republicans who opposed Paxton during the primary but are now returning to the party nominee. The poll found that 84% of Republican voters now support Paxton, a substantial increase from April and an indication that many GOP voters have moved beyond the bruising contest against Cornyn.
Only a small percentage of Republicans indicated they would support Talarico, giving Paxton a stronger foundation as the general election campaign begins.
For Republicans, the challenge moving forward will be maintaining party unity and generating turnout in a midterm-style election cycle that will not feature President Donald Trump at the top of the ballot.
Talarico Holds Key Advantages
Despite Paxton’s gains, Talarico remains highly competitive and continues to perform well among several important voting blocs.
The Austin Democrat maintained 42% support in both the April and June surveys, suggesting his coalition has remained stable even as Paxton consolidated Republican voters.
Talarico holds strong leads among independent voters, moderates, younger Texans, and college-educated voters. However, a significant number of independents remain undecided, indicating that many voters have yet to fully engage with the race.
Women also favored Talarico in the latest poll, while Paxton led among male voters.
The poll suggests that Talarico's strategy of appealing to moderate Republicans, independents, and voters dissatisfied with Paxton’s political controversies may be helping keep the race competitive despite Texas’ Republican lean.
Hispanic and Black Voter Support Could Be Decisive
The survey also highlights the importance of minority voter turnout and coalition-building in the Senate race.
Talarico led among Hispanic voters by 14 percentage points, an encouraging sign for Democrats seeking to regain support among a voting bloc that has trended more Republican in recent election cycles.
The Democratic nominee also carried Black voters by a substantial margin, although the level of support falls short of what previous Democratic Senate candidates have typically received statewide.
Political observers have noted that Democratic success in Texas often depends on overwhelming support from Black voters combined with strong turnout among Hispanic voters and competitive performances in suburban areas. The latest poll suggests Talarico remains strong among those groups but may still have room to grow.
Gender and Age Divides Emerge
The survey revealed several demographic divides that could shape the race over the coming months.
Paxton held a nine-point advantage among male voters, while Talarico led among women by six points.
Age also played a role. Talarico performed better among voters under 65 years old, while Paxton fared more strongly with older Texans.
Education was another factor. Voters holding at least a two-year college degree were more likely to support Talarico, continuing a trend that has emerged in recent elections as college-educated voters have become more competitive territory for Democrats.
These demographic splits suggest both campaigns will spend considerable resources targeting specific voter groups as Election Day approaches.
Republicans Lead in Other Statewide Contests
While the Senate race appears highly competitive, Republicans maintained stronger advantages in other statewide elections measured by the poll.
Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by seven percentage points, 47% to 40%, in the governor’s race.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick also held a comfortable lead over Democratic candidate Vikki Goodwin, 43% to 36%.
In the race to replace Paxton as attorney general, Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton led Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson by five points.
Meanwhile, former Republican state Sen. Don Huffines posted a six-point advantage over Democratic state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt in the race for state comptroller.
Democratic candidates in those statewide contests generally remained in the mid-30% range, reflecting the broader challenge Democrats continue to face in statewide Texas elections.
A Race That Could Define Texas Politics
With more than a year remaining before voters cast their ballots, the latest poll underscores the unusual competitiveness of the Texas Senate race.
Paxton appears to have strengthened his position by reuniting much of the Republican base following a contentious primary. At the same time, Talarico continues to demonstrate appeal among independents, moderates, younger voters, and key demographic groups that Democrats view as essential to building a winning coalition.
The large number of undecided independent voters and the narrow margin separating the candidates suggest the race remains fluid. As both campaigns increase fundraising, advertising, and voter outreach efforts, the contest is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political battles in Texas and across the nation.
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