A new statewide poll is offering an early snapshot of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race, showing a competitive general election contest as Republicans head into a pivotal runoff. The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) survey found Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading both incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton in hypothetical November matchups.
The poll, conducted April 17–20 among 1,865 likely voters, showed Talarico ahead of Cornyn 44 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided. In a separate test, Talarico led Paxton 46 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The results come as Cornyn and Paxton prepare to face each other in a May 26 Republican primary runoff after Rep. Wesley Hunt was eliminated in the March primary. The winner will advance to the general election against Talarico, setting up a high-profile contest that has drawn attention from national figures, including President Donald Trump and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who have emphasized the importance of Republican unity.
Both Cornyn and Paxton have said they intend to support the eventual nominee, a factor seen as key to consolidating the party’s base ahead of November.
Fundraising figures highlight a significant financial advantage for Talarico. He raised $27 million in the first quarter of 2026, compared to $9 million for Cornyn and $2.2 million for Paxton. By the end of March, Talarico reported $9.9 million in cash on hand, while Cornyn had $2.6 million and Paxton reported $8 million.
The TPOR poll also pointed to Talarico’s strength among several demographic groups. He led by wide margins among Black and Latino voters and held an advantage among college-educated voters. Among moderates, Talarico led Cornyn 62 percent to 19 percent and Paxton 65 percent to 16 percent. Independent voters also favored Talarico, giving him 51 percent support against Cornyn’s 29 percent and 53 percent against Paxton’s 28 percent.
The survey further indicated that both Cornyn and Paxton have lower net favorability ratings than a generic Republican candidate, as well as compared to figures such as Gov. Greg Abbott, Trump, and the Republican Party overall.
Other statewide races were also included in the poll. Abbott was shown leading Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa 48 percent to 43 percent. In the attorney general race, Republican candidates Mayes Middleton and Chip Roy each polled at 45 percent, while Democratic candidates Joe Jaworski and Nathan Johnson each received 39 percent.
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