New polling data released Monday shows Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading their respective Senate primary races, signaling shifts in contests that were previously considered closely contested. The findings come just over a week before early voting begins on February 17.
The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs conducted statewide surveys of 550 likely Republican primary voters and 550 likely Democratic primary voters between January 20 and January 31. Among Republicans, Paxton pulled ahead of incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by seven percentage points, while on the Democratic side, Crockett led state Rep. James Talarico by eight points. In both primaries, 12% of respondents said they had not yet made up their minds.
For Republican voters, Paxton secured 38% support compared to Cornyn’s 31%, with U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston in third place at 17%. The survey suggests Paxton would maintain an advantage if the race moves to a run-off and leads across most demographic groups in the Republican primary. Cornyn, however, retains a lead among Latino voters, where he holds a seven-point advantage over Paxton.
Among Democratic voters, Crockett garnered support from 47% of respondents, compared to 39% for Talarico. Crockett led in most key demographic groups for the Democratic primary, though Talarico maintained stronger support among white voters and those with advanced degrees. Latino voter preferences showed Crockett at 46%, Talarico at 37%, with 15% undecided. Previous polling suggested Talarico was leading in the Latino community, a shift reflected in this latest survey. Overall, more respondents reported familiarity with Crockett than with Talarico, with 92% saying they knew enough about Crockett to form an opinion compared to 85% for Talarico.
The poll also examined hypothetical matchups for the general election, indicating minimal differences in expected outcomes between Republican and Democratic candidates. In these scenarios, both Paxton and Cornyn could narrowly defeat Crockett by approximately two points, while Paxton could slightly outperform Cornyn in a matchup against Talarico. Between seven and eight percent of likely voters said they were undecided in these potential general election contests.
Beyond the Senate primaries, the survey included 1,502 likely general election voters and found an even split in approval ratings for President Donald Trump, with 49% expressing approval and 50% disapproval. The poll highlighted voter disapproval of the president’s handling of foreign policy, the economy, international trade, and cost of living, while a majority expressed approval of his management of immigration and border security.
The margin of error for the Senate primary surveys is ±4.18 percentage points, while the general election survey has a margin of error of ±2.53 points. These results provide a snapshot of voter sentiment in Texas ahead of the early voting period, showing potential shifts in both parties’ primary contests and signaling key areas of voter focus for the upcoming election cycle.
