Texas politics saw a rapid shake-up Monday as former Congressman Colin Allred (D-TX-32), the 2024 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, abruptly ended his 2026 Senate campaign on the morning of the state’s filing deadline. The move came amid widespread expectation that Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30) will enter the race later in the day, immediately redefining the Democratic primary landscape.
Allred, who launched his bid July 1 and had been considered one of the highest-profile Democrats in the field, said internal divisions and the likelihood of an expensive primary drove his decision.
“In the past few days, I’ve come to believe that a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff would prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified against the danger posed to our communities and our Constitution by Donald Trump and one of his Republican bootlickers Paxton, Cornyn, or Hunt,” Allred wrote. “That’s why I’ve made the difficult decision to end my campaign for the U.S. Senate.”
Instead, Allred announced a congressional campaign in the newly redrawn Congressional District 33, a seat reshaped during the contentious Texas redistricting process.
“But I’m nowhere near done serving my community and our state,” he said. “Today, I’m announcing my campaign for Congress to represent the newly drawn Congressional District 33. The 33rd district was racially gerrymandered by Trump in an effort to further rig our democracy but it’s also the community where I grew up attending public schools and watching my mom struggle to pay for our groceries.”
His pivot sets up a primary battle with Congresswoman Julie Johnson (D-TX-32), who was drawn out of her district when the new map shifted TX-32 from D+62 to R+60. Johnson succeeded Allred in TX-32 after he ran for Senate in 2024, a race he lost by nine points in a strong Republican year.
Meanwhile, Congressman Marc Veasey (D-TX-33) is expected to run for Crockett’s current district, TX-30, should she follow through on her Senate bid.
Crockett Likely to Enter Senate Race After Months of Speculation
Crockett has been considered a likely Senate contender since the summer, especially after her district grew more Republican during redistricting. She would join state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) as the second major Democrat in the race.
Talarico entered the contest late last summer after he and Democratic colleagues in the Texas House left the state to stall the GOP-led congressional redistricting map, which aims to add five Republican seats.
Until Crockett files, Talarico remains the only top-tier Democrat running to challenge one of three Republican contenders: incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, or Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX-38).
Polling has shown Crockett starting with a clear name-recognition advantage, though it comes with polarized views. Surveys from Change Research indicate that Crockett’s statewide profile gives her both higher familiarity and higher unfavorability, while nearly half of voters have never heard of Talarico. Among voters familiar with both candidates, Talarico held a stronger favorability margin in that survey. Another poll from October, however, showed Crockett leading Talarico by six points in a hypothetical multi-candidate field that included Allred and Beto O’Rourke.
Crockett’s national profile was amplified by sharp clashes with conservative media and by controversy earlier this year over comments referencing Gov. Greg Abbott, which critics interpreted as mocking his disability—an interpretation she has denied.
Democratic Strategy Talks Fell Apart Over the Summer
CNN previously reported that O’Rourke, Allred, Talarico, and Castro met over the summer seeking to coordinate a statewide Democratic slate, including deciding who would run for Senate. The talks ended without a deal, and each figure left the meeting prepared to pursue their own political paths—setting the stage for the uncertainty now unfolding.
A Difficult but Potentially Competitive Path for Democrats
Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, the eventual nominee faces daunting history. No Democrat has won a Texas U.S. Senate seat since 1990, and incumbents rarely lose primaries. Still, recent margins suggest Republicans are winning statewide races by smaller—though still decisive—spreads.
In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Allred by 8.4 points, even as Donald Trump carried Texas by 14 points, an indication that some statewide ticket-splitting persists.
Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but faces his own primary test against Paxton and Hunt. Recent polling shows Cornyn and Paxton in a tight race, with Hunt trailing.
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