Wave of retirements sets the stage for interesting 2026 midterm election

The 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be some of the most unpredictable contests in recent history. A striking wave of congressional retirements has created an unusually high number of open seats, raising the stakes for both parties as they fight for control of the House and Senate during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. With 38 House members and 8 senators opting not to seek re-election, the political landscape is shifting rapidly — and the outcomes of these races could determine the direction of federal policy through 2028.

In the House, the imbalance of retirements between the two parties is already influencing the battlefield. Twenty-three Republicans and sixteen Democrats are stepping aside, leaving both parties scrambling to defend or flip the newly open districts. Open seats are historically more competitive, and this year is no exception. High-profile departures like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky, and Texas Rep. Michael McCaul highlight just how much turnover is reshaping the chamber.

Several House races are poised to be particularly consequential. Arizona Rep. David Schweikert is leaving Congress to run for governor, and his district is viewed as a true toss-up. In Maine, Rep. Jared Golden’s retirement leaves Democrats defending a seat in a Republican-leaning area. Michigan Rep. John James is departing to pursue the governorship, and although his district currently tilts Republican, it is not guaranteed to stay that way. Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig’s decision to run for Senate opens up yet another competitive House seat rated as a toss-up.

The Senate picture is equally dramatic. With four Democrats and four Republicans retiring, the upper chamber will see some of its most influential figures depart. Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, long considered one of the most powerful Republicans in modern Senate history, is leaving public office after stepping back from leadership. On the Democratic side, leaders like Illinois’ Dick Durbin and New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen are also exiting. Additional retirements from Michigan’s Gary Peters and Minnesota’s Tina Smith widen the map of competitive Senate races.

Republicans Joni Ernst of Iowa and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are stepping down as well, while Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville is pivoting to a gubernatorial run. Each of these departures opens potentially volatile races that could alter the Senate’s current 53–47 balance.

Redistricting adds yet another layer of uncertainty. Six states have adopted new congressional maps, and more changes are underway. California’s new map could give Democrats as many as five additional seats, while Texas appears poised to bolster Republican representation by a similar margin. Ohio’s bipartisan commission has approved changes that could net Republicans two more seats, and adjustments in North Carolina and Missouri may each yield one additional GOP seat. Utah’s map, however, could shift one seat toward Democrats.

With control of the House currently resting on a narrow seven-seat Republican majority, every open race and every new district line matters. As campaigns ramp up and candidate fields take shape, the 2026 midterms are on track to become a defining moment for both parties — and for the balance of power on Capitol Hill.