Well, folks, it appears the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history is shuffling toward the exit — and in a plot twist fit for late-season prestige TV, it’s the Republicans walking away with a smirk while Democrats look like they just crash-landed face-first into a rake.
Last week, Democrats were swaggering around like they had just reenacted Rocky II. Chuck Schumer was practically doing victory laps. Liberals on Twitter (sorry, “X,” but no) were clinking kombucha bottles in triumph. Pundits were calling it the “beginning of the end” for Republican negotiating leverage. Think triumphal arch minus the architectural stability.
And now? Now you could probably get your call answered on the first ring at Schumer’s office, because the hold music is apparently Cheap Trick’s Surrender.
Let’s break down how we got here — slowly, for those sobbing quietly into their NPR tote bags.
The Math Was Always the Math
For 41 days, Republicans had 53 senators ready to reopen the government. Count ‘em: fifty-three. Add in Cortez Masto, Fetterman, and Angus King — who caucuses with Democrats but, like your cousin who “isn’t really in your family,” shows up to Thanksgiving anyway — and you’ve got 56 votes ready to go.
But because of Senate rules, they needed 60. Which meant Democrats had a choice: dig in forever, or eventually make a deal. And guess what? Reality is undefeated.
So last night, five Democrats — Tim Kaine, Dick Durbin, Maggie Hassan, Jacky Rosen, and Jeanne Shaheen — finally caved, joined the earlier three, and agreed to reopen the government. And what did they get for it? A promise. Just a promise. Not a law, not a reversal, not even a handshake deal. A promise from Senate Majority Leader John Thune to hold a vote on reinstating Obamacare exchange premium subsidies sometime before mid-December.
And yes, before you ask, House Speaker Mike Johnson has not promised to hold a vote on any of it. So Democrats traded six weeks of shutdown for a promissory note with the durability of wet Kleenex.
That’s It. That’s the Concession.
Reopen the government at current funding levels. Hold a vote maybe.
Reverse some federal layoffs. Try to prevent new ones for seven weeks. Possibly. If everybody remembers. And if Johnson doesn’t decide his calendar is full because someone ordered more impeachment cosplay proceedings against Biden’s cat.
This is the part where Democrats understandably ask:
“Wait. So we couldn’t have had this 40 days ago? A month ago? Last Tuesday? Yesterday?”
Correct. You could have. The answer was always yes.
This is the political equivalent of arguing with your spouse for three days about which restaurant to go to, only to end up at Olive Garden anyway. Sure, it’s unlimited breadsticks — but at what cost?
But Maybe Democrats Got Some Voters Out of It?
Ah yes, here comes the spin cycle. You can almost hear it: Well actually, the shutdown increased public frustration with Republicans and will help Democrats in 2025.
Cute. But no.
The results that Democrats are bragging about were baked in well before the shutdown. Winsome Earle-Sears was down before the first federal worker missed a paycheck. Mikie Sherrill’s 13.6-point margin wasn’t the product of angry TSA agents. Zohran Mamdani was already coasting. And California voters approving the Gavinmander 2-to-1? That’s just California doing California things.
Shutdown or no shutdown, the only difference was the size of the margins, not the final score. This wasn’t a chess match. It was a bake sale where both sides forgot the oven existed.
Republicans: Small Concession, Big Smile
Republicans reopened the government and didn’t have to:
Kill the filibuster
Give up any funding priorities
Eat a symbolic loss
Or reorder their worldview to accommodate Twitter rage
They gave up nothing but a promise to schedule a vote where they can still vote no.
This is the governing equivalent of “Sure, I’ll totally help you move next month.” You will not. You know it. They know it.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Base Is Setting Itself on Fire
Liberal activists are furious. MSNBC panelists are auditioning for Greek tragedy chorus roles. Progressive group chats are one Caps Lock malfunction away from spontaneous combustion.
Everyone wants to be the most outraged. The purest. The unwavering beacon of moral resolve shining against the darkness of checks notes reopening air travel and paying federal workers.
Because hey, what’s the dignity of 670,000 furloughed workers compared to the thrill of “owning Republicans on social media”?
What’s the financial stability of 13,000 unpaid air traffic controllers compared to the sacred duty of looking tough?
What’s a few thousand flights delayed and canceled compared to the ideological satisfaction of imagining Chuck Schumer delivering a passionate monologue while an orchestral swell plays?
At some point, someone has to say it:
Federal workers are not props in your West Wing fan fiction.
They’re real humans. With mortgages. And rent. And kids. And groceries. And car payments. And medical bills. And a general desire not to be pawns in the world’s most pointless groundhog day reenactment.
No One Ever Wins A Shutdown
This isn’t advanced political science. It’s barely even 9th-grade civics:
Shutdowns do not work.
No one becomes more popular. No one “breaks” the other party. No one walks away taller, smarter, or more intimidating.
All shutdowns do is:
Make the government look incompetent
Make the public more cynical
Make daily life harder
And make both parties look petty and small
They’re like food fights in the high school cafeteria — messy, stupid, and no one comes out looking dignified.
So Now What?
Now we get to do what Washington does best:
Pretend lessons were learned when none were
Act surprised when the same thing happens again in January
And sprint straight into holiday travel season with an understaffed, overworked, exhausted air traffic system
Hope you like delays.
And maybe pack snacks.
In conclusion: Democrats dragged the country through six weeks of shutdown to end up exactly where they started, except now they’re angrier, broke-er (that’s a word now), and yelling at each other.
Meanwhile, Republicans got to say, “Okay fine, we’ll vote. Maybe. Later. If we feel like it.”
And honestly?
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