The Texas Senate Republican primary is shaping up to be one of the marquee contests of the 2026 midterm elections, pitting two of the state’s most prominent figures — incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton — against each other. With both men boasting deep ties to the party’s base and longstanding records in statewide office, the race is expected to draw national attention, vast sums of campaign money, and potentially a decisive intervention from President Donald Trump.
For now, however, Trump is keeping his powder dry. Speaking from the Oval Office on Monday, the president acknowledged the pressure on him to weigh in but made clear he hasn’t made up his mind.
“Well, I’ll make up my mind — I like them both,” Trump said. “The worst situation I have is when I have two people that I get along with. Well, I hate it, and they all want the endorsement.”
Trump’s comments highlight both the significance of his backing in Republican primaries and the unique difficulty of the Texas contest. Cornyn, a four-term senator and former GOP whip, has been a fixture of Senate leadership and is strongly aligned with the institutional party establishment. Paxton, meanwhile, has built a loyal grassroots following, particularly among the party’s more populist wing, even as he has faced years of legal battles and controversies.
The president went on to emphasize the political weight he carries in Texas. “They like me in Texas,” Trump said. “So people are waiting for me. But I just — I’d rather not comment on it right now. I like both guys.”
That hesitation underscores the balancing act for Trump, who has successfully used endorsements to shape Republican primaries across the country but risks alienating segments of his base no matter which candidate he chooses in Texas.
Even Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) acknowledged the tricky dynamics at play. Calling the matchup “interesting,” Thune said he has recently spoken with Trump about how the White House can “be a difference maker” in critical 2026 Senate primaries.
“I’m all in, as I’ve made very clear, for John Cornyn, and so is the NRSC,” Thune said, referring to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. That puts the party’s official resources firmly behind Cornyn, even as grassroots energy may fuel Paxton’s challenge.
The Cornyn-Paxton contest highlights a broader tension within the GOP between establishment figures and insurgent conservatives who seek to challenge them. Texas, a state central to Republican electoral fortunes, is likely to be a proving ground for those competing visions.
Political strategists expect the race to draw tens of millions of dollars in spending, with outside groups aligned with both candidates preparing to flood the state’s airwaves. Turnout in the Republican primary could hinge not only on traditional campaigning but also on whether Trump ultimately steps off the sidelines.
For now, the president’s decision to hold back ensures that the race remains unsettled. Both Cornyn and Paxton enter the contest with loyal bases, significant name recognition, and no shortage of political firepower. But Trump’s eventual move — whether an endorsement, a signal of neutrality, or a last-minute push — could ultimately define the outcome in one of the most closely watched primaries of 2026.
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