Every few years, like clockwork, national political media — especially outlets like Politico — fall head over heels for the latest Lone Star Democrat with a dream. This time, it’s Texas State Rep. James Talarico, who’s generating buzz because he appeared on The Joe Rogan Experience and, in what now feels like a rite of passage, is being discussed as someone who just might turn Texas blue.
Let’s start with a fair point: Talarico is clearly more compelling than the average Democratic hopeful in Texas. He speaks openly about his Christian faith, is currently attending seminary, and isn’t afraid to critique his own party. On Rogan’s show, he offered advice that sounded refreshingly grounded:
"There is something about living in a red state that makes you different from a national Democrat who lives in a blue city on the coast."
That’s undeniably true. Democrats who survive politically in Texas have to build relationships across the aisle. It’s basic political survival, not theoretical strategy.
But then comes the familiar overreach.
Talarico as the Next Big Thing? Let’s Pump the Brakes.
Talarico is considering a 2026 run for the U.S. Senate, but it’s worth remembering he represents a solidly blue part of Austin — hardly hostile territory for a Democrat. His district isn’t even close to a bellwether. Yes, he’s young and well-spoken, and yes, he handled himself well on one of the world’s most-listened-to podcasts. But we’ve seen this movie before — many, many times.
In 2013, Texas Monthly famously ran a cover declaring “Game On” with Wendy Davis.
In 2018, Politico gushed over “Beto-Mania” as if O’Rourke had already flipped the state.
In 2023, Politico highlighted the “eye-catching support” Colin Allred was receiving ahead of his run against Ted Cruz in 2024.
And yet in each case, the outcome was the same: Democrats lost. Handily.
In 2024, Allred lost to Cruz by nearly a million votes — 959,492 to be exact. That’s not a narrow miss. That’s not even “within striking distance.” That’s a landslide loss in a state where Democrats keep thinking their moment is just around the corner.
What the Numbers Say
To put it plainly: Texas is not a swing state. Not yet.
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994.
Beto O’Rourke’s near-miss in 2018 (48.3%) remains the high-water mark — and that was with $80 million in national fundraising and glowing national press.
Colin Allred couldn’t crack 45% in 2024.
In statewide contests, margins of 800,000 to 1 million votes aren’t unusual. Even if Republicans squabble — and sure, the 2026 GOP Senate primary between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton might be ugly — that doesn't guarantee a pathway for Democrats. Republican voters in Texas may have internal divisions, but they still turn out in enormous numbers and remain culturally and ideologically conservative.
Media Hype vs. Political Reality
It’s not that James Talarico isn’t an interesting figure. He is. But the bar for generating breathless national coverage of a Democrat in Texas seems to be absurdly low. You just have to show up. Be a bit different. Say something vaguely centrist. Smile on a podcast. And suddenly, you're the Next Big Thing.
But a viral interview is not a campaign. An inspiring quote isn’t a coalition. And charisma doesn’t close 900,000-vote gaps.
Someday, Sure… But Not Today
Yes, someday a Democrat will win statewide in Texas again. It’s inevitable, just like demographic shifts and political realignments over time. But every cycle, the media acts like this could be the one — and each time, it ends the same way: disappointment, finger-pointing, and the quiet realization that Texas is still, definitively, red.
James Talarico may have a future in Texas politics — maybe even a prominent one. But let’s not confuse media excitement with electoral momentum. Until a Democrat can not just inspire a niche base but truly compete across the diverse, sprawling, culturally conservative expanse of Texas, the blue wave will keep breaking far from shore.
