Democrats have launched a high-dollar, high-ambition campaign to flip Texas blue in the 2026 midterms — a state that hasn’t favored a Democrat for president since the days of Jimmy Carter. With support from progressive billionaire George Soros and his Texas Majority PAC, the new “Blue Texas” initiative is being pitched as a turning point in the state’s political future. But history, demographics, and common sense suggest the effort faces a steep uphill battle.
The Plan: Big Spending, Bigger Promises
Starting this week, Texas Majority PAC — an organization heavily funded by Soros — is partnering with the Texas Democratic Party and local activists to launch “Blue Texas,” a multimillion-dollar campaign designed to boost Democratic turnout. The plan, revealed by The Wall Street Journal, includes organizing tens of thousands of volunteers, recruiting progressive candidates, and staging rallies across the state.
Organizers aim to make Texas a Democratic battleground by 2032, coinciding with the next presidential election and congressional redistricting cycle. In the short term, they’re targeting the 2026 Senate race and 38 congressional seats — where Republicans currently hold a 25-seat majority.
But despite the cash and enthusiasm, history isn’t on their side.
Historical Context: Red Roots Run Deep
Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential race since 1976. Since then, the state has steadily trended redder. The last Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Since then, GOP heavyweights like Phil Gramm, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Ted Cruz, and John Cornyn have dominated statewide elections.
In 2024, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Texas by over 1.5 million votes, maintaining a strong 14-point lead — a margin that suggests the state is far from turning blue.
Sen. Ted Cruz secured reelection in 2024 after a record-breaking campaign that topped $105 million in spending. His fellow Republican, Sen. John Cornyn, faces reelection in 2026 and is already being challenged in the primary by Attorney General Ken Paxton, a strong conservative with deep grassroots support.
What’s at Stake: Power, Population, and Political Clout
Texas is growing rapidly and now holds 40 electoral votes — second only to California — and could gain more after the 2030 census. While Democrats hope shifting demographics will turn Texas more favorable, the assumption that population growth equals leftward drift isn’t supported by voting trends.
In fact, much of the growth is coming from suburban and exurban areas that lean conservative. Even Latino voters, once considered a lock for Democrats, have been trending rightward, particularly on cultural and economic issues.
As Democrats pour money into progressive infrastructure, Republicans are doubling down on policy — focusing on border security, economic freedom, and parental rights, issues that resonate deeply with Texas voters.
Soros and the Shadow of Outsider Influence
The role of George Soros in bankrolling this initiative raises alarms for many Texans. Soros has become synonymous with far-left causes, soft-on-crime prosecutors, and progressive social engineering — none of which align with Texas’s more traditional, law-and-order values.
Texans have long been skeptical of coastal billionaires trying to reshape their politics from the outside. That skepticism could backfire on Democrats, particularly in rural counties and independent-minded suburbs, where voters are more likely to reject nationalized, donor-driven politics.
The Money Race: Advantage, GOP
Democrats are expected to spend more than $35 million in Texas in 2026 — a record for a midterm year. But Republicans aren’t likely to be outspent. In 2024 alone, Ted Cruz and affiliated groups spent over $105 million — more than any other Senate candidate nationwide.
With national Democrats focused on Texas, expect conservative donors to respond in kind, especially with Ken Paxton’s primary run likely to energize the base. Republican grassroots fundraising has only grown stronger in the social media age, and in Texas, small-dollar donors have consistently shown up to defend conservative values.
Bottom Line: Democrats Can Spend, but Can They Win?
The “Blue Texas” initiative is big on money and national headlines, but low on realism. Democrats have failed for decades to win statewide races, even in cycles where turnout was high and money was plentiful. The idea that outside money and progressive organizing can flip Texas misunderstands the political culture of the state — one rooted in independence, faith, family, and freedom.
While 2026 may bring noise, rallies, and flashy promises, Texas voters — especially the silent majority in the suburbs and rural counties — aren’t likely to be swayed by Soros-funded campaigns or progressive talking points.
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