Texas voters are heading to the polls Tuesday, November 3, for a midterm election that could reshape the state's political landscape, determine the future of a closely watched U.S. Senate seat, and test whether Republicans can maintain their decades-long grip on statewide offices.
Polling locations across Texas will be open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. Voters in line by 7 p.m. will still be allowed to cast their ballots.
After months of campaigning, political advertisements, fundraising battles, and heated debates, the decisions now belong to voters.
More than 7.7 million Texans have already voted, setting the stage for what could become the highest-turnout midterm election in state history.
From the battle for the U.S. Senate to competitive congressional districts and shifting political loyalties in suburban counties, there is plenty to watch as results begin rolling in Tuesday evening.
Here are five major storylines heading into Election Day.
1. Paxton vs. Talarico: The Race Everyone Is Watching
The biggest contest on the Texas ballot is the U.S. Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin.
The race has attracted national attention, enormous campaign contributions, and plenty of controversy.
Paxton enters Election Day after a remarkable political comeback. In 2023, the Texas House impeached him on allegations involving corruption and abuse of office. The Texas Senate ultimately acquitted him.
Rather than ending his political career, the impeachment battle helped strengthen his standing among many conservative Republican voters.
Paxton subsequently supported primary challengers against Republican lawmakers who voted for his impeachment, demonstrating his growing influence within the Texas GOP.
Earlier this year, he defeated longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, capturing nearly two-thirds of the vote and ending Cornyn's 23-year Senate career.
Now comes a different challenge.
Paxton has won three statewide elections for attorney general, but this is his first general election as a U.S. Senate nominee.
Talarico, meanwhile, is making his first statewide run after serving in the Texas House since 2019.
The Austin Democrat has built a national following while raising extraordinary amounts of campaign money. His campaign has brought in more than $158 million, compared with approximately $39 million for Paxton.
However, Paxton has benefited from substantial outside spending by Republican-aligned political organizations and wealthy donors, including Elon Musk.
Polling has generally shown Talarico holding a narrow advantage, although many surveys have placed the candidates within the margin of error.
Republicans have spent heavily highlighting Talarico's previous statements on social and religious issues, while Democrats have focused attention on Paxton's legal and political controversies.
The biggest question Tuesday is whether Talarico can turn his fundraising advantage and favorable polling into something Texas Democrats haven't accomplished in decades: winning a statewide election.
2. Can Democrats Break Their Statewide Losing Streak?
Texas Democrats haven't won a statewide election since 1994.
That three-decade drought is one of the defining realities of Texas politics, and Republicans are determined to keep it going.
Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking another term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin.
Although Hinojosa has shown strength in some surveys, Abbott has maintained a modest polling advantage. According to RealClearPolling averages cited ahead of Election Day, Abbott leads by approximately 2.5 percentage points.
The governor has the advantages of incumbency, statewide name recognition, and a well-established political organization.
Still, the relatively close polling has given Democrats reason to believe they could make the governor's race competitive.
Other statewide contests could also provide clues about the political mood.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick faces Democrat Vikki Goodwin, while Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton and Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson are competing to replace Paxton as attorney general.
Republican Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham faces Democrat Ben Flores, and Republican Nate Sheets is running against Democrat Clayton Tucker for agriculture commissioner.
The agriculture commissioner's race has been particularly unusual.
Sheets defeated incumbent Sid Miller in the Republican primary, but Miller has since publicly discouraged Republicans from supporting Sheets and appeared alongside Tucker.
The Texas Railroad Commission race has also generated controversy.
Republican Bo French, who defeated incumbent Commissioner Jim Wright in the primary, faces Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal.
French has faced criticism over controversial social media posts, including one targeting Indian and Indian-American students at a University of Texas football game.
An October University of Houston Hobby School poll showed French leading Rosenthal by just two percentage points, 45% to 43%.
Republican Don Huffines, who defeated acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock in the primary and was subsequently appointed to the position, faces Democratic state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt.
Democrats don't necessarily need to win every competitive statewide race to claim progress. Even a single victory would represent a historic breakthrough.
3. Will Texas Republicans Benefit From Congressional Redistricting?
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives could depend partly on what happens in Texas.
In 2025, Republican lawmakers redrew the state's congressional boundaries in an effort to create five additional GOP-friendly seats.
The targeted districts include Congressional Districts 9, 28, 32, 34, and 35.
But drawing favorable districts doesn't automatically guarantee Republican victories.
In the Houston area, Republican Alex Mealer faces Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in Congressional District 9, previously represented by longtime Democratic Congressman Al Green.
In District 32, Republican Jace Yarbrough faces Democrat Dan Barrios.
Both districts now have a substantial Republican advantage based on historical voting patterns.
Other contests could be considerably closer.
Congressional District 35 features Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.
In South Texas, Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar is seeking another term against Republican Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina in District 28.
Meanwhile, Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores in District 34.
That race could be especially important because the newly drawn district offers Republicans only a narrow historical advantage.
The results will help determine whether Texas Republicans successfully expanded their congressional representation or whether Democrats can overcome the new political boundaries.
With other states also changing congressional maps, the national consequences could extend well beyond Texas.
4. Record Early Voting Could Change the Election Night Math
One of the biggest stories of this election has already happened.
Texans turned out in extraordinary numbers before Election Day.
According to preliminary figures from the Texas Secretary of State, more than 7.7 million voters cast ballots during the early voting period, which ended October 30.
That represents approximately 40.67% of the state's 19 million registered voters.
Voter data analyst Derek Ryan has suggested total turnout could exceed 10 million ballots, approaching 53% of registered voters.
Such a result would establish a new high for a Texas midterm election.
Ryan's analysis also found an interesting balance among early voters.
Approximately 30% had participated exclusively in Republican primaries, while another 30% had voted exclusively in Democratic primaries.
Others had mixed primary histories or had participated only in general elections.
Those figures don't necessarily reveal which candidates voters supported. Texans aren't required to vote for the party whose primary they previously participated in.
But they do suggest both parties have been successful at getting their supporters to the polls.
Ryan estimated another two million to three million Texans could vote Tuesday.
The biggest unknown is whether those Election Day voters will favor Republicans or Democrats.
Historically, Texas Republicans have relied heavily on Election Day turnout, while Democrats have often emphasized early voting.
That pattern could matter as results begin appearing Tuesday evening.
Early voting totals may initially favor one party before Election Day ballots change the picture.
Large counties could also take longer to report their complete results.
Harris County, with approximately 2.7 million registered voters and more than 600 polling locations, will be particularly important.
In Bexar County, election officials have announced plans to delay releasing early voting results until everyone waiting in line at 7 p.m. has voted.
That means Texans should be cautious about drawing conclusions from the first numbers reported.
5. Watch These Counties for Clues About Who Is Winning
Texas is too large and politically diverse to judge an election by looking at one county.
However, several counties could provide important clues about where the statewide races are headed.
Tarrant and Williamson counties will be among the first places to watch.
Both counties supported Donald Trump in 2024 after backing Joe Biden in 2020. However, they also voted for Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred over Republican Ted Cruz in 2024.
If Democrats can win these suburban counties by substantial margins, it could signal a competitive statewide race.
Collin and Denton counties, north of Dallas, may be even more revealing.
Both have closely reflected statewide Republican voting percentages in recent elections.
In 2024, Trump received approximately 54% of the vote in Collin County and nearly 56% in Denton County, compared with roughly 56% statewide.
If Paxton or Talarico wins both counties, it could be an encouraging sign for that candidate.
Dallas and Travis counties will be crucial for Democrats.
Both are Democratic strongholds, but simply winning them won't be enough.
Democratic candidates may need overwhelming margins in Dallas and Austin to offset Republican strength elsewhere.
Harris and Bexar counties could also determine the outcome.
These large metropolitan counties have supported Democrats in recent presidential elections, but by narrower margins than Dallas and Travis.
Strong Democratic performances in Houston and San Antonio would make the statewide contests considerably more competitive.
Meanwhile, Montgomery and Parker counties remain major Republican strongholds.
Republican candidates will need large victories in these counties to counter Democratic advantages in urban areas.
Finally, keep an eye on Cameron and Zapata counties in South Texas.
Both shifted significantly toward Republicans during recent presidential elections.
Whether those gains continue or reverse could help explain the changing political preferences of Hispanic voters in Texas.
A Defining Election for Texas
By the time polls close Tuesday night, millions of Texans will have participated in an election that could carry significant consequences for both the state and the country.
Republicans are trying to defend their statewide dominance, capture additional congressional seats, and send Ken Paxton to Washington.
Democrats are hoping record turnout, competitive suburban counties, and dissatisfaction with Republican leadership can finally end their statewide losing streak.
The early voting numbers suggest Texans are paying attention.
But high turnout alone doesn't guarantee victory for either party.
The real answers will begin emerging after 7 p.m., as county election offices release their unofficial results.
Some races may become clear relatively quickly. Others could remain unsettled well into the night.
