The Texas Tech Red Raiders are undefeated, ranked in the top 10, and riding one of college football's longest home winning streaks. Now, they have some unfinished business to settle.

No. 10 Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) welcomes Arizona State (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) to Galaxy Stadium on Saturday for a Homecoming showdown between the Big 12's two most recent champions. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m.

A victory would give Texas Tech a 6-0 start for the second straight season and extend its home winning streak to 12 games.

But Red Raider fans haven't forgotten last season's 26-22 loss in Tempe, when Arizona State scored a late touchdown to steal a victory.

Saturday offers a chance for payback.

Texas Tech tight end Terrance Carter Jr. insists the players aren't treating it as a revenge game.

"I wouldn't say [it's] a game circled," Carter said Tuesday. "If it's circled, it's just because it is the next opponent we have."

That's the right approach. Because despite entering as overwhelming favorites, the Red Raiders face an Arizona State team capable of making things interesting.

Red Raiders Have Plenty of Reasons to Feel Confident

On paper, Texas Tech should control this matchup.

ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives the Red Raiders a 94.1% chance of winning, and Arizona State's results against major-conference opponents explain why.

Texas A&M hammered the Sun Devils 48-20, while Baylor cruised to a 55-19 victory. Arizona State's only Power Four win came against Kansas, a narrow 24-17 decision in London.

Still, overlooking Kenny Dillingham's team would be a mistake.

The Sun Devils won the 2024 Big 12 championship after being picked to finish last. They also pushed Tech during a 30-22 loss in Lubbock that season before winning last year's meeting.

Dillingham knows how to prepare his team for big games.

Turnovers Could Decide This One Early

Arizona State has struggled to protect the football, ranking 109th nationally in turnover margin at minus-0.60 per game.

The Sun Devils have lost five fumbles and thrown three interceptions through five games.

Those mistakes proved disastrous against stronger opponents. Arizona State committed four turnovers against Texas A&M and three against Baylor.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech's defense has forced seven turnovers over its last two games.

That's a dangerous combination.

If Arizona State continues giving away possessions, the Red Raiders could build a comfortable lead before halftime.

And chasing an undefeated Texas Tech team in front of its Homecoming crowd isn't exactly an ideal situation.

Texas Tech's Offense Has an Opportunity to Roll

One frustrating problem for Texas Tech has been its tendency to create difficult third-down situations with negative plays on early downs.

Against Colorado, the Red Raiders converted just three of 12 third-down opportunities.

Fortunately, Arizona State hasn't been particularly effective at disrupting opposing offenses.

The Sun Devils rank 104th nationally in tackles for loss, averaging just 4.4 per game. That's last in the Big 12.

It's a significant decline from last season, when Arizona State averaged 6.6 tackles for loss and ranked 17th nationally.

The Sun Devils also allow the conference's second-most points per game.

For Texas Tech, the formula is straightforward: Stay ahead of the chains, avoid penalties, and establish manageable third downs.

Do that consistently, and the Red Raiders should find plenty of scoring opportunities.

Third-Down Struggles Continue to Hurt Arizona State

Arizona State's offensive problems extend beyond turnovers.

The Sun Devils convert just 29.7% of their third-down opportunities, ranking 128th nationally and last in the Big 12.

Against Texas A&M and Baylor, they converted only seven of 27 attempts.

Texas Tech hasn't exactly dominated on third down defensively, allowing opponents to convert 39% of their opportunities.

However, there are encouraging signs.

Sam Houston converted five of 16 third downs against Tech, while Colorado finished six of 16.

If the Red Raiders continue improving, Arizona State could struggle to sustain drives and keep its vulnerable defense off the field.

Arizona State's Receivers Are a Serious Threat

Here's where things get interesting.

Texas Tech's biggest weakness is its pass defense, which allows 262.2 yards per game and ranks 124th nationally.

That's concerning against an Arizona State offense averaging 272.8 passing yards per game.

And the Sun Devils have two dangerous receivers.

Reed Harris leads the Big 12 with 590 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 17.4 yards per catch.

The 6-foot-5 receiver has surpassed 125 receiving yards three times, including a nine-catch, 189-yard performance against Texas A&M.

Colorado transfer Omarion Miller provides another weapon, recording 31 receptions for 312 yards and two touchdowns.

Both receivers have more receiving yards than any individual Texas Tech player this season.

That's worth paying attention to.

The Red Raiders have already allowed four opposing receivers to reach at least 90 yards this season.

Arizona State exploited Tech's secondary during last year's victory, completing passes of 49, 45, and 39 yards while drawing two pass interference penalties.

Cornerbacks Bryce Pollock and Davin Martin, along with safety Brenden Jordan, will need to prevent similar breakdowns.

If Arizona State has a realistic path to an upset, it runs through explosive passing plays.

Texas Tech cannot afford to let Harris and Miller repeatedly get behind its secondary.

Homecoming Crowd Gives Tech Another Advantage

There's something special about playing in Lubbock when the Red Raiders are rolling.

Texas Tech has won 11 consecutive home games, tied for the sixth-longest active streak nationally.

Another victory would match the program's second-longest home winning streak, established from 2007 through 2009.

With Homecoming festivities adding excitement, Galaxy Stadium should provide an electric atmosphere.

That could create additional problems for an Arizona State offense already struggling with turnovers and consistency.

A fast start would put the Sun Devils under pressure and potentially force them into a pass-heavy approach.

That's exactly the kind of game Texas Tech wants.

The Red Raiders have plenty working in their favor.

They're undefeated, playing at home, and facing an opponent struggling with turnovers, third-down conversions, and defensive consistency.

But Arizona State's passing attack makes this matchup more dangerous than the 94.1% win probability suggests.

If Texas Tech protects the football, establishes offensive rhythm, and limits explosive passing plays, the Red Raiders should take care of business.

Arizona State has enough offensive talent to land a few punches, but Texas Tech's defense, home-field advantage, and overall consistency should ultimately prove too much.

A 6-0 start, a 12-game home winning streak, and some payback for last season?

Sounds like a pretty good Homecoming Saturday in Raiderland.