For decades, Republicans have been able to approach a Texas statewide election with one significant advantage: history was on their side.
The 2026 U.S. Senate race is testing just how much that advantage is worth.
Republicans poured roughly $122 million into Texas advertising during September alone, an extraordinary escalation designed to bolster Republican nominee Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. Another $66 million in Republican airtime had already been reserved through Election Day by the end of the month, according to AdImpact.
Those numbers tell a story beyond which candidate ultimately wins.
Republicans are spending the kind of money normally associated with protecting a genuine battleground seat in a state where they have not lost a statewide election since 1994. Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988.
Yet Texas is now consuming resources on a scale that Senate Republicans spent much of the primary warning could happen if Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn.
From Talarico’s air war to a Republican avalanche
At the beginning of September, Talarico had the advertising advantage. The Democrat had already spent tens of millions of dollars introducing himself to voters while Republicans debated how much outside help Paxton would need.
That situation changed dramatically within a month.
Paxton himself accounted for only about $1.2 million of Republican spending during September, although he began closing that gap Friday with the launch of a $20 million statewide advertising campaign.
The far bigger force has been outside Republican groups.
Texas PAC, which is connected to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has spent about $131 million, according to federal filings. President Donald Trump’s super PAC has added nearly $24 million.
Federal Election Commission filings show outside organizations from both parties have spent more than $205 million on the general election, with more than 98% of that money benefiting Paxton through advertising supporting him or opposing Talarico.
That is an extraordinary financial intervention for a Republican nominee in Texas.
Republicans warned this could happen
The spending also gives new relevance to an argument Republicans made during their own primary.
Thune and other Senate Republicans worried that nominating Paxton instead of Cornyn could transform what normally would be considered a relatively secure Republican seat into an expensive general-election fight.
Their concern was not simply whether Paxton could win. It was how much Republicans would have to spend to make sure he did.
That distinction matters because campaign money is finite.
Republicans are simultaneously defending competitive Senate races in states including Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio while hoping to compete for Democratic-held seats elsewhere. Every dollar committed to Texas is a dollar unavailable for another contest.
With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority, losing Texas would also dramatically reduce their margin for error elsewhere.
Texas is smashing spending records
The scale of the race is difficult to overstate.
General-election advertising spending in the Texas Senate contest had reached nearly $259 million by the end of September, already surpassing the approximately $202 million spent during the entire 2024 Senate battle between Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Collin Allred.
Include the expensive Democratic and Republican primaries, and candidates and outside organizations have spent roughly $432 million on the race.
Some of that is simply the cost of campaigning in Texas. Reaching voters across 20 media markets is expensive even under ordinary circumstances.
This election is clearly no ordinary Texas Senate campaign.
Talarico remains competitive despite the spending gap
Republican outside groups have concentrated much of their advertising on Talarico's support for transgender Texans. Some ads use a clip of Talarico saying that “defending trans Texans is something we have to do every day,” while others revive the Trump campaign's “for they/them, not you” message.
Talarico has taken a different approach with much of his own advertising.
He has spent about $61 million since the general election began, according to AdImpact, emphasizing his Christian faith, experience as a teacher and work in the Texas Legislature. His negative advertising has focused heavily on allegations of corruption and misconduct involving Paxton.
Talarico also has one financial advantage that helps narrow the enormous spending gap. Federal rules allow candidates to purchase television advertising at lower rates than outside organizations.
That difference is visible in the numbers.
Republicans accounted for 72% of broadcast advertising spending in the race through September, according to AdImpact, but received only 54% of the actual broadcast exposure when measured by gross ratings points.
In other words, Republicans are spending considerably more money without receiving a proportional advantage in airtime.
So far, the polls have barely moved
Perhaps the most striking part of the September spending explosion is what has not happened.
Talarico has not collapsed in public polling.
Polling averages had Talarico at 47.4% on Sept. 1, leading Paxton by about 3 percentage points. By the end of September, Talarico stood at 47.3% and held roughly a 2-point advantage.
That average includes an internal Paxton poll showing the Republican ahead by 3 points.
A one-point movement in the overall margin hardly demonstrates that Republican advertising has been ineffective. Campaign advertising can prevent a candidate from losing ground just as easily as it can produce an obvious polling surge, and there is still more than a month before Election Day.
But after a nine-figure Republican advertising offensive, the basic shape of the race remains remarkably similar.
The spending may be the biggest political story of all
Paxton could still win. Texas' long Republican streak and underlying partisan lean remain significant advantages for the GOP.
Talarico could also become the Democrat who finally breaks that streak.
Either outcome, however, will leave Republicans confronting an uncomfortable reality about the 2026 campaign.
They are spending historically large sums simply to defend Texas.
The Republican establishment warned during the primary that nominating Paxton could force the party to devote nine figures to a state it normally expects to win. That prediction has effectively come true.
Republicans have decided that whatever the price of protecting the seat, allowing Texas to become the race that costs them control of the Senate would be more expensive.
Whether that investment pays off will be decided by voters in November.
