With less than nine weeks before early voting begins in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, Ken Paxton and James Talarico are crisscrossing the state, shaking hands, speaking to crowds and trying to convince voters that they should represent Texas in Washington.

But turn on a television, and the race looks much more one-sided.

Talarico, the Democratic nominee and an Austin state representative, has spent more than $25 million on advertising since the general election began in late May, according to data from ad tracking firm AdImpact. Nearly $10.7 million of that has gone toward broadcast television, with another $8.4 million spent reaching voters through streaming devices.

Paxton’s campaign, meanwhile, has spent just $119,000 during the same period, with nearly all of it going toward digital advertising.

The enormous gap has effectively given Talarico the television airwaves to himself during much of the summer.

Texans have seen ads featuring Talarico alongside his grandfather. Other spots have placed him in a grocery store talking about high prices or behind the wheel of a truck. His campaign has also aired a World Cup-themed Spanish-language ad highlighting his legislative record.

The advertising blitz has coincided with a tightening race. Recent polling has shown Talarico narrowly ahead in several surveys, though those leads have generally remained within the margin of error.

Paxton has openly acknowledged that disparity — and has increasingly made the case that Republican donors need to help him close it.

“As we’re raising money, we’re working our way back into October, which is where we can spend money, and we’re trying to work our way back to September,” Paxton said during a recent Fox News appearance. “But we need help now, because James Talarico’s been spending $3 or $4 million a week on TV for the last month. So, I want to compete.”

Paxton’s campaign has pointed out that the Republican raised more than $9 million during the second quarter, more than any other non-incumbent Republican Senate candidate in the country.

But Paxton entered the general election with another problem: an expensive Republican primary runoff had drained resources that Talarico was able to save.

After winning his Democratic primary outright in March, Talarico had months to build his war chest while Paxton continued spending money on the Republican nomination fight.

Republicans argue there is still plenty of time.

Traditional campaign wisdom holds that many voters do not seriously tune into elections until after Labor Day. Texas Republicans can also point to Sen. Ted Cruz, who was outspent on advertising during both his narrow 2018 victory and his more comfortable reelection win in 2024.

Still, the calendar is getting harder to ignore.

“I do think Paxton needs to define Talarico, and he needs to do it soon,” John Wittman, a Republican consultant and former adviser to Gov. Greg Abbott who is unaffiliated in the race, said. “We’re about three months out from Election Day. So it's important for Republicans to combat this Democrat aggression, that they do start to spend and start to define Talarico for the crazy liberal he is.”

Republicans begin testing attacks

There are early signs of Republican advertising support.

Protecting America’s Future, a Republican group seeded by longtime Paxton ally and West Texas billionaire Tim Dunn, recently became the first GOP organization to put anti-Talarico television ads on the air.

The group spent roughly $120,000 on two spots attacking Talarico over China policy and crime, with the ads running primarily in the Corpus Christi media market.

That remains tiny compared with the Democratic spending operation.

Talarico’s campaign has spent more than $7.3 million on advertising over the past couple of weeks alone — more than 36 times the amount Republicans dropped during the comparable period.

The contrast is particularly striking compared with Texas’ last Senate election.

Cruz was also being outspent by Democrat Colin Allred during the summer of 2024, but Cruz began spending six figures per week on advertising in late July. By late September, his campaign was spending seven figures weekly.

Combined with outside Republican spending, at least $2 million in GOP advertising was hitting Texas airwaves each week by the end of August 2024.

Paxton has yet to come close to that pace. His campaign has not spent more than $20,000 on advertising during any single week of the general election. AdImpact has tracked more than $72,000 in Republican spending this week, the party’s largest weekly total since the runoff.

Democrats ultimately outspent Republicans $119.7 million to $82.6 million in the 2024 Texas Senate race after the primaries. But Cruz benefited from tens of millions of dollars in outside advertising and coordinated spending, much of which arrived in late September.

Paxton is in a different position. Cruz was an incumbent senator with six years to raise money. Paxton, despite his long tenure in statewide Texas politics, is running his first federal campaign.

“GOP donors need to get off their asses”

The biggest unanswered question is whether national Republican money is coming.

Groups capable of dramatically narrowing the gap include Senate Leadership Fund, the national super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, and MAGA Inc., the massive super PAC aligned with President Donald Trump.

Paxton himself has said Talarico’s advertising advantage is showing up in polling.

“He’s got money,” Paxton told conservative radio host Dana Loesch. “He’s been on TV for about four or five weeks. And it’s helped him a little bit in the polls — that’s why the polls have gotten closer.”

Some Republicans are becoming considerably less patient.

After interviewing Paxton, Loesch criticized Republican organizations for “leaving you to hang” and asked, “Where’s the GOP in this race?”

“This is a winnable race,” Loesch said. “All these big money GOP donors need to get off their asses and make a decision. Because I guaran-damn-tee you, if their inaction results in us having somebody like James Talarico, dear God in heaven, my rage will be limitless.”

Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove, who supported Sen. John Cornyn against Paxton in the GOP primary, has similarly warned that outside spending could prove crucial.

“He’s not going to change as a fundraiser,” Rove said of Paxton on Fox News. “So this is going to be one that is going to depend mightily upon the decision of President Trump to spend or not spend the half a billion plus dollars that he has in his two super PACs — MAGA Inc. and Never Surrender. If he does spend, then he can sort of even it up. If he doesn’t spend, this could be a really bad night for Republicans in Texas.”

There are indications Republicans are at least exploring their options. Texas Bullpen reported that MAGA Inc. conducted message-testing polling in Texas this month featuring potential attacks against Talarico.

Paxton also says he has been told help is coming.

“We haven’t yet, but we’re very hopeful that that’s coming soon,” Paxton told Loesch when asked whether national Republican groups were providing adequate support. “We’ve been told September.”

Texas remains an outlier

For now, Texas stands apart from other major Senate battlegrounds.

Republican candidates and allied organizations have already reserved at least $10 million in advertising beginning Sept. 1 in eight battleground states, according to AdImpact. In Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio — five competitive states where Republicans are defending seats — GOP fall reservations exceed Democratic bookings.

Texas has no comparable Republican reservation yet.

Democrats have not reserved Texas advertising beyond Sept. 1 either, including Senate Majority PAC, the national super PAC aligned with Democratic Senate leadership.

Part of the explanation may simply be Texas’ size.

The state contains 20 separate media markets, reducing the pressure to reserve television time months ahead. In smaller states with fewer markets — particularly those where competitive gubernatorial and congressional campaigns are fighting for the same airtime — rates can climb rapidly and early reservations become more important.

Texas campaigns and outside groups can more easily buy advertising week by week.

Paxton could also eventually receive help from Lone Star Liberty PAC, the pro-Paxton super PAC that spent $5.7 million during the primary. But the group emerged from the bruising runoff badly depleted, reporting only about $35,000 on hand at the end of June.

The pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising PAC, by comparison, entered July with nearly $12.7 million available.

Republicans may benefit indirectly from spending elsewhere on the Texas ballot, particularly the governor’s race, as statewide Republican campaigns unleash their own advertising this fall.

For Paxton, however, the immediate challenge is clear.

Talarico has spent the summer introducing himself to millions of Texans largely without a competing Republican television message. Paxton and Republican strategists are betting that voters remain persuadable and that the money needed to challenge that narrative will arrive as Election Day draws closer.

Whether that happens in September — as Paxton says he has been told — could determine whether this summer’s extraordinary advertising imbalance becomes a temporary footnote or one of the defining stories of the Texas Senate race.