Democrat James Talarico is drawing support from a sizable share of Republican voters in Texas, according to a new Fox News poll released Thursday, giving Democrats an encouraging sign in a state they haven't won statewide in more than three decades.
The survey found Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton, 51% to 48%, though the race remains within the poll's three-point margin of error.
The numbers also suggest Paxton has yet to fully reunite Republicans after his bruising GOP primary against Sen. John Cornyn. While Paxton secured President Donald Trump's endorsement over Cornyn, his years of legal and personal controversies continue to shadow his campaign. Those include felony securities fraud charges, an impeachment and an extramarital affair.
The poll found nearly one in four Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement would vote for Talarico instead of Paxton.
Fox News correspondent Garret Tenney said the primary appears to have left lasting damage with Republican voters.
"The brutal GOP primary with John Cornyn is having a lingering impact on how voters feel about Ken Paxton — particularly Republican voters," he said. "Why is that? Well, one reason is that more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than they are that Talarico is too extreme."
That finding is reflected elsewhere in the poll. Overall, 59% of Texas voters said they have serious concerns about whether Paxton has the character to serve in the Senate, while 47% said they are concerned Talarico is too extreme.
Republicans have attacked Talarico as too progressive, pointing to his support for transgender rights and Medicare for All. But the survey suggests concerns about Paxton's character currently outweigh concerns over Talarico's ideology.
Even so, voters on both sides appear to be making their decision primarily on policy rather than personality.
"About 8 in 10 Paxton and Talarico supporters say their backing is more about where the candidates stand on the issues than who they are as people," the poll notes.
The Fox News poll was conducted July 23-27 among 1,006 registered Texas voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
While the race remains close, the results offer Democrats a rare reason for optimism in Texas, where Republicans have controlled statewide elections for more than 30 years. Whether Talarico can turn that early advantage into a victory will likely depend on whether Paxton can win back skeptical Republicans in the months ahead.
