The Cook Political Report moved its ratings for two major Texas races toward Democrats on Thursday, another sign that Republicans could face a more difficult political environment heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

The election forecaster now rates the U.S. Senate race between Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin as a toss-up, meaning neither candidate is considered the clear favorite.

Cook previously rated the race as “leans Republican,” a designation for a competitive contest in which the Republican candidate still held an advantage.

The shift follows a series of polls showing an exceptionally close race between Paxton and Talarico.

A recent Texas Southern University poll found Talarico leading Paxton 47 percent to 45 percent. Paxton was the only statewide Republican candidate trailing a Democratic opponent in the survey.

An Emerson College poll, meanwhile, found Paxton with a one-point advantage, leading Talarico 47 percent to 46 percent. Both polls showed the candidates within their respective margins of error.

The RealClearPolitics polling average paints a similarly tight picture, with Talarico at 46 percent and Paxton at 45 percent.

Talarico has also built a substantial fundraising advantage over Paxton. His campaign has brought in so much money that it refunded more than $1 million in excess contributions, according to NOTUS. President Donald Trump has previously announced plans to help Paxton narrow the financial gap, ABC News reported.

Cook also moved Texas’ gubernatorial race in Democrats’ direction, though Republican Gov. Greg Abbott remains the clear favorite.

The forecaster changed the race between Abbott and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” A solid rating generally indicates a race is not competitive and is unlikely to become so, while the likely designation suggests the favored party maintains a clear advantage but the contest has become more competitive.

Recent polling has shown Abbott leading Hinojosa by anywhere from eight percentage points to just one.

The RealClearPolitics polling average currently puts Abbott ahead by slightly more than four points, 48 percent to 44 percent. That would represent a substantially narrower margin than Abbott's last election. He defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by nearly 11 points in 2022.

Democrats still face a formidable historical hurdle in both races.

No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, leaving Republicans with a winning streak stretching more than three decades.

But Texas has produced close statewide contests before, particularly during Democratic-friendly midterm environments. In 2018, then-U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke came within three percentage points of defeating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

O’Rourke ultimately lost, preserving Republicans’ statewide streak, but his strong performance helped Democrats further down the ballot. The so-called “Beto wave” contributed to Democratic gains in several state legislative races.

The latest Cook ratings suggest the 2026 contests are once again worth watching closely. Abbott remains favored to win another term, but his race is no longer in Cook's safest Republican category. And in the Senate contest, Cook now sees Paxton and Talarico entering the final stretch with neither candidate holding a clear advantage.

Other election forecasters have likewise continued to view the Paxton-Talarico contest as highly competitive.