Amarillo ISD could see enrollment decline by thousands of additional students over the next five years, leaving more than 13,000 empty seats across the district, according to a demographic update presented to trustees Monday.
During a special meeting, members of the Amarillo ISD Board of Trustees received the second portion of the district’s overview project from STRIVE Public Policy Resources. STRIVE Managing Director Bob Templeton presented the findings after previously providing trustees and district staff with a community profile report in June.
For the latest report, Templeton examined building capacities and campus maps and surveyed principals. He also worked closely with Amarillo ISD Chief Financial Officer Daniel West and the district’s finance team.
The findings showed Amarillo ISD’s enrollment decline beginning in the 2021-2022 school year. Enrollment has fallen by about 2,590 students over the past four years, and Templeton projects the district could lose another 3,666 students over the next five years.
“This is not just related to Amarillo ISD. It is a combination of some birth rate impact here, but there’s also the expansion of school choice, and so there’s multiple things at play,” Templeton said.
He said examining those trends now gives the district an opportunity to plan for their long-term effects.
Thousands of empty seats projected
If current projections hold, Amarillo ISD could have approximately 13,338 empty seats by the 2030-2031 school year.
The district’s 34 elementary campuses currently have its lowest overall utilization rate. During the past school year, 13,771 students were enrolled in Amarillo ISD elementary schools, which operated at about 70% utilization.
Within five years, the report projects elementary enrollment will fall below 12,000 students, bringing utilization to about 61%.
“In five years, we could be looking at about 8,431 empty seats of space at those elementary campuses,” Templeton said.
Middle schools are experiencing the fastest decline in utilization while also having some of the district’s highest campus capacities. Bonham Middle School was slightly over capacity last school year, while Austin Middle School was at capacity.
Overall middle school enrollment stands at 6,271 students, with a 75% utilization rate. The report projects enrollment falling to 5,396 students within five years, reducing utilization to 63.4%.
Amarillo ISD’s five high schools have the district’s highest overall utilization rate, with 7,598 students and 85% utilization. Amarillo High School currently has the highest utilization rate. Five years from now, high school enrollment is projected to decline to approximately 6,768 students, with utilization falling to 76%.
Among the district’s feeder patterns, Templeton said Palo Duro High School has the lowest utilization rate, followed by Caprock, Tascosa and Amarillo High School. North Heights Alternative School and AmTech Academy were not included because they do not have feeder patterns.
“Caprock, Palo Duro, Tascosa–those three feeder patterns specifically have the most room for improvement in the utilizations,” Templeton said.
Consolidations could be part of long-term plan
Amarillo ISD currently operates 52 active campuses. By 2030-2031, the report projects 45 campuses will operate below 80% utilization, including four below 40%.
Templeton also identified seven “dual-concern” campuses with both low utilization and high facility maintenance needs, though he did not name those campuses Monday.
Only three campuses are projected to operate at or near 100% utilization: Bonham Middle School, Austin Middle School and Amarillo High School.
Templeton suggested trustees consider a goal of bringing campuses to 80% utilization by 2029 to improve long-term sustainability. Reaching that target could require operating six to eight fewer elementary campuses. At the middle school level, he said eliminating sixth-grade campuses would be enough to reach the goal, while no high school reductions would be necessary.
The process could occur in phases, beginning as early as the 2027-2028 school year. Templeton said consolidating sixth-grade campuses could be among the easiest initial steps because it would not require rezoning the district.
“I would start by looking at some low-hanging fruit around sixth-grade centers and around possibly your early learning center,” Templeton said.
Later phases could involve rezoning, transfer patterns, program locations, additional consolidations or a potential reduction in force.
“Phase one could happen within the next six months, and phases two and three would be two years or so, and the nice thing is you’ve got time to plan that,” Templeton said.
Templeton said the district will also examine how Texas Education Freedom Accounts affect enrollment during the upcoming school year.
