Texas is facing a long-term water challenge as its population grows and existing supplies decline, putting water policy at the center of the race for Texas agriculture commissioner.
Republican nominee Nate Sheets and Democratic nominee Clayton Tucker outlined different approaches to the issue ahead of the Nov. 3 general election.
Texas water planners project the state’s population will grow from 34.2 million in 2030 to 52.3 million by 2080. At the same time, under drought-of-record conditions, existing water supplies are projected to decline from roughly 15.5 million acre-feet per year to 14 million acre-feet.
Addressing that gap will require a massive investment.
The 2027 State Water Plan identifies 3,036 recommended water management projects carrying a combined estimated capital cost of $173.7 billion.
The Texas Water Development Board leads the state’s water planning efforts. The Texas Department of Agriculture also plays a role through its Office of Water, which works with farmers, ranchers, water districts, researchers and other state agencies on water issues affecting agriculture.
Sheets, who defeated incumbent Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller in the March 3 Republican primary, pointed to the state’s recently approved water funding initiative as an important step toward addressing the problem.
Sheets points to Proposition 4
Sheets highlighted Proposition 4, the constitutional amendment approved by Texas voters on Nov. 4, 2025.
The amendment directs up to $1 billion annually from state sales tax collections above $46.5 billion into the Texas Water Fund. The funding mechanism is scheduled to operate from Sept. 1, 2027, through Aug. 31, 2047.
State Sen. Charles Perry, R-Lubbock, sponsored House Joint Resolution 7 in the Senate and authored Senate Bill 7, which implemented the water funding changes.
“Last session, Senator Charles Perry, the Texas Legislature, and the people of Texas took an important step by passing Proposition 4 and making a generational investment in our state’s water future,” Sheets said.
Sheets said that, as agriculture commissioner, one of his priorities would be making sure farmers and ranchers are represented as the state weighs competing demands for limited water resources.
“As Agriculture Commissioner, I will fight to ensure that as Texas plans for a growing population and economy, agriculture has a strong seat at the table alongside residential and industrial users. Texans can’t live without water, and they can’t live without food—the two go hand in hand,” Sheets said.
“We need to invest wisely in water infrastructure, conservation, and innovation while protecting the farmers and ranchers who depend on reliable water to feed Texas and the nation.”
Tucker calls for a broader approach
Tucker argues that Texas will need to pursue several strategies simultaneously rather than relying on a single policy or funding source.
“There’s no silver bullet to fix our water issues, but there is a silver buckshot,” Tucker said.
Tucker characterized the state’s immediate challenge primarily as a water management problem. However, he warned that it could develop into a supply problem within the next 10 to 20 years, particularly as water-intensive developments such as data centers place additional demands on resources.
His proposals include repairing aging and leaking water infrastructure, investing state money in university research to lower the cost of desalination and developing more efficient irrigation technology for agriculture.
Tucker also said Texas should steer water-intensive industries away from areas that are already struggling with water scarcity.
Another part of Tucker’s proposal focuses on Texas water law. He said farmers, families and homesteaders should be protected from efforts by large financial interests to acquire water resources and profit from them.
“We don’t want Wall Street to pump our aquifers dry just to sell it back to us,” Tucker said.
Tucker also proposed helping farmers diversify into drought-tolerant crops and livestock, including industrial hemp. He supports rotational grazing to help restore grasslands, rebuilding forests and shelterbelts where appropriate, and encouraging new technology that could reduce water consumption by existing industries.
Water looms over the future of Texas agriculture
The two candidates differ in how they would approach the challenge, with Sheets emphasizing the state’s new water investment and ensuring agriculture is represented in future water decisions, while Tucker is advocating a broader mix of infrastructure repairs, research, conservation, agricultural changes and restrictions on where water-intensive development should occur.
But both candidates agree on the larger issue: Texas agriculture’s future will be closely tied to how the state manages an increasingly strained water supply.
