Gov. Greg Abbott continues to hold the advantage in the race for Texas governor, though recent polling suggests Democrat Gina Hinojosa remains within striking distance heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
Five major surveys released since June show Abbott leading by between one and seven percentage points. The newest polls place the Republican incumbent ahead by six points, while a late-July Fox News survey found the race separated by just a single point.
The economy has become the defining issue of the campaign. Hinojosa has proposed legislation that would send every Texas household a $1,500 payment if she wins in November, while Abbott has rolled out a package of affordability measures that includes capping prices for certain prescription drugs and lowering insurance costs.
Across multiple surveys, voters consistently identified inflation, the cost of living, jobs, and the economy as their top concerns.
Wedgewood Polls: Abbott +6
A Wedgewood Polls survey conducted July 30-31 among 800 likely voters found Abbott leading Hinojosa 50 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Abbott's advantage was driven largely by men, who favored him by 18 points, and voters ages 45 to 64, where he led by 15 points. Unlike several other recent polls, Wedgewood also found Abbott ahead among voters without a college degree, leading that group by 13 points.
Hinojosa's strongest support came from younger Texans. She led voters ages 18 to 29 by 29 points, Hispanic voters by 13 points, and Black voters by 75 points. Abbott carried white voters by a 61-34 margin.
The survey also showed little crossover between the parties. Nine in 10 voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024 said they plan to vote for Abbott, while nearly the same share of Kamala Harris voters supported Hinojosa.
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research Center: Abbott +6
The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research Center at Texas Southern University surveyed 1,200 likely voters from July 27-30 and found Abbott leading 49 percent to 43 percent. Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon received 3 percent support, while 5 percent of respondents remained undecided.
Abbott's favorability rating was almost evenly divided, with 48 percent viewing him favorably and 51 percent unfavorably.
The poll also illustrated one of Hinojosa's biggest hurdles. While virtually every respondent said they knew enough about Abbott to form an opinion, 35 percent said they did not know enough about Hinojosa.
Abbott led college-educated voters by 11 points and men by a 58-34 margin. Hinojosa held sizable advantages among younger voters, women, and Black voters, including a 19-point lead among voters ages 18 to 34 and a 59-point advantage among Black Texans.
Fox News: Abbott +1
The narrowest margin came in a Fox News telephone survey conducted July 23-27, which found Abbott at 50 percent and Hinojosa at 49 percent.
Although the poll did not ask about voters' top issue in the governor's race, inflation and high prices ranked first in the Senate contest, with 37 percent identifying it as their biggest concern. Immigration and border security followed at 18 percent, while health care ranked third at 11 percent.
The survey also found Hinojosa remained less familiar to many Texans than other statewide figures. Nineteen percent of respondents said they had never heard of her, compared with 4 percent for Attorney General Ken Paxton and 6 percent for state Rep. James Talarico.
Texas Public Opinion Research: Abbott +3
Texas Public Opinion Research surveyed likely voters from July 15-17 and found Abbott ahead 45 percent to 42 percent.
Hinojosa ran strongest among independents, moderates, Black voters, and Hispanic voters. Abbott maintained advantages among white voters and college graduates.
Affordability dominated the issue landscape in the survey, with 44 percent of respondents calling the cost of living the most important issue facing Texas.
New York Times/Siena: Abbott +7
The earliest poll in the group, conducted June 19-27, gave Abbott his largest lead at 51 percent to 44 percent.
While the survey asked about issues influencing congressional races rather than the governor's contest, economic concerns topped the list. Twenty percent of respondents identified the economy, including jobs and the stock market, as their highest priority, followed by candidate character and competence and then immigration.
A Consistent Pattern
While Abbott's margin varies from poll to poll, the broader picture has changed little over the past several weeks.
The governor continues to draw his strongest support from white voters, men, and middle-aged Texans. Hinojosa's coalition is anchored by younger voters, Black Texans, Hispanic voters, and women.
The surveys also point to a second challenge for Democrats beyond the polling gap. Hinojosa remains significantly less well known than the two-term incumbent, meaning her campaign must both persuade undecided voters and introduce her to many Texans before ballots are cast.
