A new poll is raising eyebrows in Texas' U.S. Senate race, not just because Democrat James Talarico is ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, but because of the voters helping put him there.
The latest survey from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) gives Talarico a 45% to 40% lead over Paxton, the largest advantage the Austin state representative has posted in any publicly released general election poll since Paxton secured the Republican nomination in May.
The five-point edge is notable on its own. But the biggest surprise is buried in the poll's demographic breakdown.
According to the survey, Talarico leads among Texans without a college degree by a 45% to 36% margin. That's a group Republicans have consistently counted on in statewide elections. Exit polls showed Sen. Ted Cruz carrying non-college voters comfortably in both his 2018 and 2024 Senate races, and TPOR's own poll in May had Paxton leading that same group by 21 points.
If the latest numbers are accurate, they would represent a dramatic shift in one of the state's most reliable voting blocs.
The poll also suggests Talarico has opened a sizable lead among independent voters. He leads Paxton 43% to 23%, though nearly three in 10 independents say they still haven't made up their minds.
Paxton's support within his own party also appears softer than in other recent surveys.
The poll found 7% of self-identified Republicans backing Talarico, while another 12% remain undecided. On the Democratic side, just 1% said they plan to vote for Paxton, with 6% still undecided.
That stands in contrast to other polling conducted since the Republican primary. A June New York Times/Siena College survey found the race tied at 47% and showed Paxton holding an eight-point advantage among voters without a college degree.
TPOR's previous poll, conducted shortly after Paxton defeated former Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, also painted a tighter picture, with Talarico leading 47% to 44%.
The latest survey follows more familiar political lines when it comes to race.
Black voters favored Talarico by a 71% to 8% margin, while Latino voters backed him 66% to 20%. Paxton continued to dominate among white voters, leading 53% to 33%.
Even with Talarico's lead, the race remains far from settled.
Fourteen percent of likely voters said they are still undecided. Among that group, 19% said they currently lean toward Paxton, while 10% lean toward Talarico. Roughly two-thirds described themselves as genuinely undecided, leaving plenty of room for the race to change over the final months of the campaign.
The survey questioned 1,048 likely Texas voters between July 15 and July 17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
As with any poll, the results come with caveats.
TPOR describes itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research organization, but it is led by Democratic strategist Luke Warford. Warford is also a founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a political action committee focused on strengthening Democratic campaign infrastructure in Texas. The PAC's largest donor, Simone Coxe, has contributed $500,000 to a pro-Talarico super PAC during this election cycle, prompting some conservatives to question the survey's findings.
Still, both parties agree on one thing: the race is shaping up to be one of the nation's most competitive Senate contests.
Democrats believe Talarico has an opportunity to end a statewide losing streak that stretches back more than 30 years, pointing to his fundraising, campaign message and Paxton's ethical controversies as reasons the race could break their way.
Republicans argue the opposite. They expect GOP voters to continue rallying around Paxton now that the primary is over and believe Talarico's progressive positions on social issues will become a bigger factor as the campaign intensifies.
The Cook Political Report continues to rate the race as **Lean Republican**, a reminder that one favorable poll does not necessarily signal a shift in the overall trajectory of the contest.
The TPOR survey also found competitive races further down the ballot.
Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa 45% to 42%, while Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton held a razor-thin 39% to 38% advantage over Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson in the race to replace Paxton as attorney general.
