As the 2026 midterm election cycle begins to take shape, the Trump administration and congressional Republicans are making a renewed push to shore up support among America’s farmers, a key voting bloc that helped propel President Donald Trump to the White House in both 2016 and 2024. But rising costs tied to tariffs, trade uncertainty, and fallout from the ongoing Iran conflict have left many rural communities frustrated and financially strained.
Now, with concerns growing about voter turnout in traditionally conservative farming regions, the administration is racing to reassure producers that relief is on the way.
Returning from a summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump struck an optimistic tone about new agricultural agreements with China, one of the largest buyers of U.S. farm products. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said American farmers would soon see major benefits from the talks.
“The farmers are going to be very happy. They’re going to be buying millions of dollars,” Trump said.
Earlier in the trip, Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity that Xi had agreed to purchase U.S. soybeans, oil, liquified natural gas, and Boeing aircraft as part of a broader economic understanding between the two countries. A White House official later described the agreements as a breakthrough that would give American farmers “unprecedented access” to Chinese markets.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer reinforced that message, telling Bloomberg that China was expected to commit roughly $10 billion toward agricultural purchases.
Still, many experts and farmers remain skeptical.
Brian Reisinger, a rural policy expert and author focused on agricultural economics, said farmers have heard similar promises before and are waiting for concrete details.
“It’s a good step to hear that some agreements were reached,” Reisinger said, “but the question with China is always whether they’re going to follow through on their commitments.”
He noted that American farmers are caught in a difficult geopolitical reality. China remains both a major trading partner and one of America’s biggest strategic rivals, leaving producers vulnerable whenever tensions escalate.
“The reality is that we’re in a unique position here, having arguably America’s biggest adversary also be America’s biggest buyer of agricultural products,” he said.
The pressure on the administration to produce tangible trade wins has been mounting for months. Republican lawmakers from heavily agricultural states have been lobbying the White House ahead of Trump’s China visit, hoping to secure commitments that could stabilize commodity prices before the midterms.
Sen. Steve Daines of Montana publicly urged the administration to secure deals for “Boeing, beef and beans,” while Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa said he personally emphasized the importance of agriculture during a call with Greer before the trip.
Soybeans remain the top U.S. agricultural export to China, alongside beef and corn. But Chinese purchases dropped sharply after Beijing retaliated against Trump-era tariffs with trade restrictions targeting American farm goods — a move widely viewed as an attempt to pressure one of Trump’s strongest political constituencies.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that soybean issues were “really all taken care of” under an earlier trade framework signed in October, when China agreed to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually for three years.
However, Trump also admitted that extending the current tariff truce was never discussed during the summit.
“We didn’t discuss tariffs,” Trump said. “They’re paying tariffs. They’re paying substantial tariffs.”
That uncertainty is exactly what worries many farmers.
Daniel Swift, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that one-time purchase agreements are not enough to restore long-term confidence in agricultural markets.
“A one-time purchase commitment isn’t that helpful for a Midwest soybean farmer,” Swift said. “They need consistent market access and the ability to make long-term investment decisions.”
Farmers themselves echo that concern. Joshua Manske, an Iowa farmer and board member of the Iowa Farmers Union, said stability matters more than political headlines.
“One day on, the next day off — we’ve got commitments, we don’t have commitments — that makes it hard to plan,” Manske said.
Republicans are increasingly worried that frustration in rural America could depress turnout in the midterms, even if those voters do not necessarily switch to Democrats. Analysts say the greater risk for the GOP is disengagement from voters who no longer believe Washington is improving their economic situation.
Meanwhile, Congress is preparing to debate a sweeping farm bill passed by the House that would expand rural investments and revise agricultural regulations. But the legislation faces uncertainty in the Senate, where lawmakers are preoccupied with immigration funding battles before recess begins later this month.
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