A new statewide poll suggests highly competitive general election matchups in Texas’ 2026 U.S. Senate race, with both incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton effectively tied against Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in hypothetical November contests. The findings come as early voting begins in the Republican Senate runoff that will determine whether Cornyn or Paxton advances as the GOP nominee.
The survey was conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University between April 22 and May 6, 2026. It included responses from 1,223 likely 2026 general election voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. The poll was administered in both English and Spanish.
In a general election scenario featuring Cornyn, Talarico, and Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, Cornyn received 45 percent support compared to 44 percent for Talarico, while Brown drew 3 percent. In a separate matchup replacing Cornyn with Paxton, the results were similarly tight, with both Paxton and Talarico each receiving 45 percent support and Brown taking 2 percent.
The survey also explored crossover support between Republican primary voters in the event of a runoff winner becoming the party nominee. Among Cornyn supporters, 90 percent indicated they would back Paxton if he becomes the nominee, while a small share indicated support for Talarico or Brown, and a modest portion remained undecided. Among Paxton supporters, 91 percent said they would support Cornyn if he secures the nomination, with minimal support shifting to other candidates and a similar level of undecided voters.
Early voting for the Republican Senate runoff is currently underway across Texas and runs through May 22, with election day scheduled for May 26. The runoff will determine whether Cornyn or Paxton advances as the Republican nominee to face Talarico and Brown in the November general election. The contest follows the March primary in which neither Republican candidate secured a majority, necessitating a runoff.
On the Democratic side, Talarico secured the nomination after defeating former U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March primary. His standing in the poll shows relatively balanced favorability ratings among likely voters, with a notable share still reporting limited familiarity with him.
The poll also measured public perceptions of the major candidates. Talarico’s favorability sits near the mid-40 percent range, with a sizable portion of respondents indicating they have not formed an opinion. Paxton and Cornyn both show higher unfavorable ratings than favorable ones, with Cornyn slightly lower in approval than Paxton among surveyed voters.
The survey additionally included broader statewide political tests. In a gubernatorial matchup, Republican Governor Greg Abbott was shown leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, while the lieutenant governor race showed incumbent Republican Dan Patrick ahead of Democratic challenger Vikki Goodwin, with additional support distributed among minor party candidates and undecided voters.
National political sentiment was also reflected in the polling, with President Donald Trump receiving closely divided favorability ratings among respondents.
With both major-party Senate contenders polling within the margin of error against their Democratic opponent, the results highlight a highly competitive political environment heading into the general election cycle. However, the outcome of the Republican runoff remains the immediate focus, as Texas voters determine which GOP candidate will advance to the November ballot.
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