A new poll from the University of Houston highlights tightening contests and uneven voter awareness as Texas Republicans head toward several high-stakes runoff elections.
In the marquee race for U.S. Senate, incumbent John Cornyn continues to trail Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The survey, conducted April 28 through May 1 among 1,200 likely Republican runoff voters, shows Paxton with 48 percent support compared to Cornyn’s 45 percent, while 7 percent remain undecided. Paxton also holds a higher net favorability rating, registering positive territory while Cornyn’s rating falls slightly below zero.
The poll suggests Paxton is benefiting from support among voters whose first-choice candidate did not advance to the runoff. Among those who backed Wesley Hunt in the March primary, Paxton leads Cornyn by a wide margin, indicating an advantage in consolidating support from eliminated candidates.
Further down the ballot, state Sen. Mayes Middleton leads U.S. Rep. Chip Roy by nine points in the Republican runoff for attorney general, with 48 percent backing Middleton and 39 percent supporting Roy. Another 13 percent of voters remain undecided, underscoring the challenges candidates face in building name recognition outside top-tier races.
The race for Texas Railroad Commission shows even greater uncertainty. Incumbent Commissioner Jim Wright holds a narrow edge at 35 percent over Bo French, who garners 28 percent support. However, a sizable 37 percent of respondents remain undecided, reflecting limited voter familiarity with the candidates.
Poll director Mark Jones noted that down-ballot races are struggling to capture voter attention, particularly in a cycle dominated by the costly and high-profile Senate contest. Lower fundraising totals and reduced visibility have contributed to large pools of undecided voters in these races.
The survey also reveals a notable divide in voter preferences based on education levels. Cornyn leads among college-educated voters, while Paxton holds a significant advantage among those without a four-year degree, pointing to differing coalitions within the Republican electorate.
At the national level, Republican voters in Texas continue to express strong favorability toward JD Vance and Donald Trump, signaling the continued influence of national figures on state-level politics.
Separate polling on general election matchups shows Democratic candidate James Talarico narrowly leading both Cornyn and Paxton. Meanwhile, Gov. Greg Abbott maintains an advantage over Gina Hinojosa in the gubernatorial race, and Republicans in the attorney general contest hold leads over Democratic contenders Joe Jaworski and Nathan Johnson.
