Texas Republicans are showing increasing concern about their prospects in the 2026 midterm elections, as internal divisions and shifting political dynamics raise questions about their ability to maintain power. On Wednesday, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick warned that the GOP could face serious challenges in holding onto its majority in the Texas House, offering one of the clearest signs yet of unease within party leadership.
Speaking at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s annual conference in Austin, Patrick stressed the importance of party unity, particularly in the closely watched Republican Senate primary runoff. The race pits John Cornyn against Ken Paxton in a contest that has already turned bitter. With the May 26 runoff approaching, both candidates have resumed attacks after a contentious first round.
Patrick emphasized that the outcome of the Senate race could have far-reaching consequences beyond a single seat. The Republican nominee will face Democratic candidate James Talarico, who secured his party’s nomination in March. According to Patrick, it is critical that whichever Republican loses the runoff fully supports the nominee in the general election. Without that unity, he warned, the party risks losing the Senate seat.
Such a loss would carry national implications, potentially helping Democrats gain control of the U.S. Senate. Patrick also cautioned that divisions at the top of the ticket could weaken Republican candidates further down the ballot, particularly in competitive Texas House races.
Republicans currently hold 88 of the 150 seats in the Texas House and have maintained control of the chamber since 2003. Democrats would need to flip at least 14 seats to win a majority. While that remains a significant hurdle, past elections have shown it is not out of reach.
In the 2018 midterms, Texas Democrats flipped 12 House seats, narrowing the Republican advantage and signaling growing competitiveness in suburban districts. That same year, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke in a race that drew national attention.
Patrick also pointed to more recent warning signs, including a special election in a traditionally Republican Texas Senate district that was won by a Democrat. The district had previously supported Donald Trump by a wide margin in the 2024 presidential election, making the result particularly notable.
Despite his concerns about the Texas House, Patrick expressed confidence in the Republican position in the state Senate, where the party currently holds a 20-11 advantage. As the chamber’s presiding officer, he suggested it remains firmly in GOP control. However, he reiterated that success across the ballot will depend on cooperation among Republican candidates, including those emerging from divisive primaries.
The broader political context in Texas adds to the uncertainty. Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades, with no Democrat winning statewide office since 1994. In 2024, Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points, reinforcing the state’s Republican lean. Still, demographic changes and evolving voter preferences have made some races more competitive in recent years.
Patrick himself is seeking reelection, aiming for a fourth term as lieutenant governor. After easily winning his primary, he will face the Democratic nominee later this year. That candidate will be determined in a runoff between Vikki Goodwin and Marcos Vélez.
As the midterm elections approach, Patrick’s warning underscores a key challenge for Texas Republicans: maintaining unity while navigating an increasingly competitive political landscape. Whether those concerns translate into losses will become clear in the months ahead, but party leaders are signaling that they are not taking anything for granted.
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