As the Texas Republican Senate runoff approaches on May 26, President Donald Trump has yet to weigh in on who he supports, leaving the race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a state of uncertainty. Trump has not issued a press release, formal announcement, or even a Truth Social post endorsing either candidate before the deadline for removing names from the ballot.
The absence of a Trump endorsement comes at a crucial moment in a contest that could signal voter sentiment toward the current administration. While either candidate could suspend their campaign, the names of Cornyn and Paxton are locked in for the runoff. Texas election officials cannot remove a candidate from the ballot ahead of the May 26 contest.
The race has grown intensely personal in recent weeks. Cornyn’s campaign released an AI-generated ad highlighting adultery allegations against Paxton, showing him alongside two women with black boxes labeled “mistress” obscuring their faces. The attack underscores the sharp divisions within the Republican Party and the high stakes of the contest.
Whoever emerges victorious will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the general election. Analysts view the race as one of the most closely watched in the 2026 midterms. No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, but polls suggest Talarico could be a competitive challenger. Newsweek reports that the two most recent polls show Talarico with a narrow one-point lead over both Republicans — within the margin of error, but notably stronger than Beto O’Rourke’s standing at the same point in the 2018 race, when he trailed Sen. Ted Cruz by 18 points.
Trump signaled his intention to endorse shortly after the March 3 primaries. “I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE! Is that fair? We must win in November!!!” he wrote on Truth Social.
Since the primaries, both candidates have attempted to influence Trump’s decision. They have emphasized their support for the SAVE Act, an election bill Trump wants the Senate to pass. Cornyn, who won 42% of the March 3 primary vote — short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff — reversed his longstanding position on the Senate filibuster, now saying the 60-vote threshold is blocking the SAVE Act. Paxton, meanwhile, has offered to drop out if the bill passes.
Outside groups are also trying to sway Trump. According to The New York Times, a political action committee supporting Paxton ran television ads in Florida, hoping to catch Trump’s attention at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach.
Polls suggest that a presidential endorsement could be decisive. A University of Houston poll found that 55% of likely Republican voters would be more inclined to support the candidate Trump endorses. Texas Public Opinion Research shows Paxton holding a nearly double-digit lead over Cornyn — but that lead shrinks to just 1% if Trump were to endorse Cornyn.
The runoff carries broader implications for Texas politics and the 2026 midterms. Cornyn is widely seen as the more mainstream Republican, while Paxton represents a hardline conservative approach that aligns closely with Trump’s policy priorities. Both campaigns are aware that the outcome will not only determine the Republican nominee but could also influence perceptions of party unity ahead of the general election.
Texas voters may recall a cautionary tale: earlier this year, Kelly Hall, a resident who believed he had withdrawn from a Democratic primary for a state House seat, found himself unexpectedly winning the nomination by 3,000 votes because his name remained on the ballot. The incident highlights the unpredictable nature of elections and the potential impact of a high-profile endorsement.
