Texas Republicans are headed for a high-profile and potentially bruising runoff after Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn advanced from Tuesday’s GOP Senate primary to a May 26 showdown.
The Associated Press projected before 10 p.m. that Paxton and Cornyn would move on to the runoff, even as a substantial share of Election Day votes remained unreported. Early results showed the two rivals separated by a narrow margin, setting the stage for nearly three more months of campaigning in what has already become one of the most contentious Republican primaries in recent Texas history.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, a second-term congressman from Houston who entered the race last fall, finished a distant third. Hunt faced heavy spending from political action committees aligned with both leading candidates in the final stretch of the race, as each sought to consolidate support and prevent him from advancing. Because Hunt relinquished his House seat to run for Senate, his third-place finish effectively ends his current congressional tenure.
Polling leading up to the primary had consistently suggested that Paxton and Cornyn were likely to advance, though most surveys showed Paxton either leading or tied for first. Cornyn’s strong showing in the early vote provided a boost to the four-term senator, who has been a dominant figure in Texas Republican politics for more than three decades and has never lost a statewide race.
The close margin is widely expected to intensify efforts among Cornyn’s allies in Washington to secure an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Trump has so far declined to endorse in the contest, describing all three primary candidates as friends. With the field narrowed to two, his backing could prove decisive in a runoff electorate that is typically smaller and more ideologically conservative.
The stakes extend beyond the Republican Party. The GOP nominee will face either state Rep. James Talarico or U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in November. National Democrats view the race as a potential opportunity in a state they have not won statewide in more than 30 years. Their optimism has been fueled in part by memories of Beto O'Rourke coming within three percentage points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018.
Republican leaders, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have privately and publicly emphasized the importance of retaining the seat. Some in the party argue that a Paxton nomination could require significant financial resources to defend in the general election, diverting funds from other competitive contests in states such as Georgia, Maine and North Carolina.
Outside groups have already invested heavily in the primary. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund have spent millions supporting Cornyn and criticizing Paxton. Paxton, by contrast, has highlighted the comparatively smaller sums spent by his campaign and argued that grassroots support outweighed financial disparities.
Paxton’s tenure as attorney general has included legal and political challenges, including impeachment proceedings in the Texas House on abuse of office allegations. He was later acquitted by the Texas Senate, and separate state securities fraud charges were dropped. Cornyn allies have pointed to those controversies as potential liabilities in a general election, while Paxton’s supporters argue they underscore his appeal to conservative voters skeptical of the political establishment.
The role of Hunt’s supporters may prove pivotal in the runoff. He has not immediately endorsed either remaining candidate, though he frequently criticized Cornyn on the campaign trail as insufficiently aligned with the party’s most conservative base.
.jpg)
