Texas Republicans are heading into a defining moment Tuesday as voters cast ballots in one of the most expensive and bitter primary contests in American political history. The high-stakes race between U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is expected to offer the clearest picture yet of where the party’s base stands after nearly a year of intraparty warfare.
With more than $95 million spent and national Republicans deeply invested in the outcome, the contest has become more than just a primary — it is a struggle for the ideological direction of the GOP in one of the country’s most politically consequential states.
The winner will carry significant responsibility in November, not only as the party’s Senate nominee but also as the figure tasked with energizing Republican turnout in a midterm environment where Democrats appear unusually motivated.
A Test for the GOP’s Future
For Washington Republicans, the stakes are existential.
Party leaders have poured tens of millions into protecting Cornyn, a long-serving senator who has played a central role in shaping modern Republican dominance in Texas. First elected to the Senate in 2002, Cornyn has never lost an election in more than three decades of public office and has held senior leadership roles in Washington.
But this year’s challenge from Paxton — a staunch ally of Donald Trump and a hero to the party’s grassroots right — represents the most serious threat of his career.
Paxton has built his political brand around legal fights against Democratic administrations and culture war flashpoints involving abortion, religion and LGBTQ+ rights. His supporters argue that the party must nominate a candidate who can energize the conservative base, particularly lower-propensity Trump voters.
Yet his candidacy comes with controversy.
Over the past decade, Paxton has faced allegations including securities fraud, abuse of office and bribery. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 before being acquitted by the Senate. State felony charges were ultimately dropped in 2024.
Despite the baggage, Paxton has repeatedly won statewide elections — even while under indictment — reinforcing his belief that grassroots enthusiasm can outweigh establishment concerns.
Hunt’s Entry Complicates the Race
The race took an unexpected turn in October when Hunt entered the contest.
A second-term congressman from Houston, Hunt positioned himself as a generational alternative — someone aligned with Trump’s agenda but without Paxton’s controversies.
His entry all but guaranteed the possibility of a runoff, scheduled for May 26 if no candidate secures a majority Tuesday.
Hunt has argued he is uniquely capable of winning both the primary and a competitive general election, presenting himself as a younger candidate able to carry the conservative movement forward.
Late in the campaign, both Cornyn and Paxton allies spent heavily to blunt Hunt’s momentum, including attacks highlighting missed votes in Congress as he campaigned statewide.
Hunt, for his part, interpreted the spending surge as validation.
“It means I must be right over the target zone,” he told supporters at a rally this week.
Democrats Sensing Opportunity
Unlike past cycles, Republicans are not assuming the general election will be easy.
Democrats are energized and engaged in a competitive primary between state Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett — a contest widely viewed as the party’s best statewide opportunity since Beto O’Rourke came close in 2018.
Early voting numbers already show Democrats turning out at higher rates than Republicans, a trend that has raised alarms among GOP strategists.
The Republican nominee will be expected not only to win but also to help down-ballot candidates across key regions from South Texas to the Houston suburbs.
Trump’s Silence Looms Large
One of the most striking elements of the race has been Trump’s neutrality.
While the former president has endorsed heavily in primaries nationwide, he has declined to weigh in here — despite saying he considers all three candidates friends.
That silence has intensified lobbying efforts behind the scenes.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has reportedly urged Trump to back Cornyn, reflecting deep concern in Washington about the risks of a Paxton-led ticket.
“Almost every time we talk, we talk Texas,” Thune told reporters this week.
The possibility of a Trump endorsement remains a wildcard — particularly if the race heads to a runoff.
A Clash of Party Factions
At its core, the primary reflects a broader struggle between the GOP establishment and its populist wing.
Paxton entered the race arguing Cornyn was insufficiently aligned with Trump and conservative priorities. He pointed to Cornyn’s role in negotiating a bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school shooting and past skepticism about Trump’s electability.
Cornyn responded by emphasizing his loyalty to Trump, highlighting a voting record he says aligns with the former president more than 99% of the time.
Allies, including the super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority, initially focused on boosting Cornyn’s positives before pivoting to attacks as the race tightened.
“We always saw the election as very fluid,” said executive director Aaron Whitehead. “Where we sit in the primary today, it’s a jump ball.”
Paxton’s supporters have taken the opposite view, arguing that national Republicans are overspending to protect an incumbent who has struggled to break 40% in most polls.
“Are they going to allow money to be spent in states that need it more?” asked strategist Sam Cooper. “Or are they going to continue to throw good money after bad?”
Turnout Could Decide the Outcome
Through Feb. 25, more than 850,000 Republicans had cast ballots — outpacing 2022 midterm levels and approaching presidential-year turnout.
Strategists say turnout composition may prove decisive.
Older voters, who make up 41% of early GOP voters so far, are seen as a key advantage for Cornyn. Lower-turnout elections, by contrast, often benefit more ideologically driven candidates like Paxton.
“If it’s a much larger electorate in the primary, then obviously Cornyn has a better opportunity to pick those folks up,” said Republican consultant John Wittman, a former adviser to Gov. Greg Abbott.
A Bitter Finish — and Likely More Ahead
The final days of the campaign have turned increasingly negative.
A pro-Cornyn ad criticized Paxton’s character, referencing his divorce and alleged affair, framing the choice as between “the wife cheater and fraud or the Texas workhorse.”
Paxton responded sharply:
“Unlike John Cornyn, who’s become a desperate shell of a man clinging to power, my campaign is not about attacking someone else’s family,” he said. “It’s about protecting America.”
On social media, tensions have only escalated.
“[Cornyn]’s desperate, he knows he’s going to lose, and his only goal is to hurt me and the party,” Paxton said.
“There you go again: playing the victim,” Cornyn replied. “All your baggage is self-inflicted.”
What Tuesday Will — and Won’t — Decide
Most polling suggests Cornyn and Paxton are likely to advance to a runoff, extending the fight deep into spring.
But even if Tuesday does not produce a nominee, it will deliver something almost as important: the first hard evidence of where Texas Republicans stand after a year of intense campaigning and unprecedented spending.
The margin could determine whether Trump steps in, reshape donor strategy and influence how aggressively each side campaigns moving forward.
