As Texas Republicans prepare to choose their nominee for U.S. Senate this spring, the stakes extend far beyond a single statewide office. The winner — Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, or Rep. Wesley Hunt — will sit atop the GOP ticket in November, shaping turnout patterns and potentially influencing the fortunes of Republican candidates running for Congress, the Legislature and local offices.
The question confronting party activists and strategists is straightforward: who would have the longest coattails?
Down-ballot performance has taken on renewed urgency following a surprise Democratic victory in a recent state Senate special election in Tarrant County, long considered a Republican stronghold and a bellwether for statewide trends. The result underscored a broader reality facing Texas Republicans in 2026: they will contend with a highly motivated Democratic electorate in a midterm cycle with a Republican president in the White House — but without President Donald Trump’s name on the ballot.
That dynamic has sharpened the debate in the Republican primary. Cornyn and Paxton, in particular, have framed their closing arguments around electability and the potential ripple effects of their candidacies.
Cornyn, Texas’ senior senator, has emphasized his history of strong general election performances. In 2014, he won reelection by 27 percentage points, the largest margin among statewide Republicans that year. In 2020, he prevailed by 9.6 points, outperforming Trump’s 5.6-point margin in Texas. Cornyn argues that his broader appeal to moderates and independents would help insulate down-ballot Republicans from backlash and avoid alienating swing voters who could determine competitive races.
“I’ll win,” Cornyn said. “Paxton probably will lose and drag the rest of the ticket down with him. I think people understand that. Obviously, it’s important to the president to win the new congressional seats, which are right below me on the ballot. And so I think that’s a pretty compelling case for why I should be the nominee.”
Paxton, by contrast, contends that enthusiasm among Republican base voters will be the decisive factor in 2026. His campaign argues that turning out low-propensity, Trump-aligned voters is essential in a midterm environment where Democrats are energized.
“We must be laser-focused on turning out low-propensity, Trump-supporting America First voters,” Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser, said in a statement to The Texas Tribune. “John Cornyn is the worst possible choice on that front.”
The debate reflects two distinct theories of victory. One prioritizes persuading moderates and swing voters; the other focuses on maximizing base turnout. Political analysts say both tasks are critical.
“If the top-of-the-ticket candidates turn out more voters for their party, it creates more potential voters for down-ballot candidates to also pick up,” said Josh Blank, the research director for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
Blank described the challenge as twofold: energize loyal partisans while also convincing less committed voters to support the party from the top of the ballot to the bottom.
Recent history offers cautionary examples. In 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke lost his Senate bid against Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points but generated enough enthusiasm to help Democrats flip two congressional districts, two Texas Senate seats, a dozen state House seats and every countywide office in Harris County. That election, the last midterm with Trump in office, demonstrated how a competitive statewide race can reverberate down the ballot.
Some Republican operatives argue that Paxton’s candidacy could risk a similar dynamic in reverse. A memo released by Deep Root Analytics on behalf of a pro-Cornyn super PAC concluded that Paxton as the nominee could create a drag of 4 to 7 points on a generic Republican congressional candidate. The analysis suggested that such a shift could complicate efforts to flip Democratic-held congressional districts and potentially put several Republican-held seats at risk.
“The data suggests that nominating Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate in 2026 would impose a measurable down-ballot penalty for Republicans in Texas,” the memo concludes. “His candidacy not only reduces the likelihood of flipping competitive Democratic-held seats but also exposes multiple GOP-held districts to potential Democratic gains.”
Paxton’s supporters dispute the premise that he would underperform in November. A recent public poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found the general election matchup to be a statistical tossup regardless of which Republican is nominated, challenging the notion that Paxton is uniquely vulnerable.
Beyond polling, the structural landscape has shifted since 2018. Following the most recent redistricting cycle, Republicans redrew Texas’ congressional map to strengthen their position. Five Democratic-held seats were made more favorable to the GOP without significantly weakening existing Republican incumbents. In theory, that gives Republicans more insulation against a midterm backlash.
Still, party veterans caution against complacency. Paul Simpson, who chaired the Harris County Republican Party from 2014 to 2020, witnessed firsthand how Democratic enthusiasm in 2018 reshaped local politics. He noted that as Democrats have expanded their voter base in Texas, Republicans must now compete more aggressively for undecided and moderate voters, not just motivate their core supporters.
“So if you’ve turned out a moderate Democrat or even just an undecided type voter who’s kind of sour on the top of the Republican ticket, just logically, they’ll tend to go down the ballot and vote in that party,” Simpson said.
At the same time, some strategists argue that base turnout may be more critical in 2026. John Thomas, a Dallas-based GOP strategist, said both Cornyn and Paxton present trade-offs: Cornyn may hold together more of the traditional Republican coalition, while Paxton may generate greater enthusiasm among core conservatives.
“The powerful combination is that one-two punch — scare your base about the other guy running, and have them enthusiastically ready to pull the lever for you,” Thomas said. “I think Cornyn’s probably missing one of those.”
Another complicating factor is the absence of Trump on the ballot. While Paxton has aligned himself closely with Trump and sought his endorsement, analysts note that replicating Trump’s turnout effect is difficult.
“As much as Ken Paxton has cultivated the traditionally conservative base of the Republican electorate, Ken Paxton is not Donald Trump,” Blank said. “I think that’s a tough one.”
The Democratic side of the ballot will also matter. Competing strategies are emerging there as well, with candidates debating whether to prioritize expanding the party’s base or courting moderates and independents. In addition, Gov. Greg Abbott, who will be on the ballot, has signaled plans to deploy significant campaign resources in key counties such as Harris, potentially bolstering Republican candidates in state-level races.
Ultimately, the length of any nominee’s coattails will depend on more than personal popularity. Turnout dynamics, national political conditions, fundraising, messaging and the quality of individual down-ballot candidates will all shape the outcome.
For Texas Republicans, however, the Senate primary presents an early test of strategic judgment. In a state that has trended more competitive in recent cycles but remains firmly Republican at the statewide level, the choice at the top of the ticket could either reinforce that advantage or narrow it. As November approaches, the party’s decision will offer a real-world answer to the question now dominating GOP conversations: who can win — and who can bring others with them?
