Taylor Rehmet’s January special election victory in Texas Senate District 9 surprised nearly everyone involved in Texas politics. The district, centered in Tarrant County, had not elected a Democrat in almost 50 years. President Donald Trump carried it by more than 17 points in 2024, and Republicans had won dozens of recent state and federal races there by comfortable margins. Yet Rehmet, a first-time candidate, Air Force veteran, and union machinist, defeated conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss by 14 points.
The result immediately sparked debate: Was this a fluke of timing and turnout, or a sign of deeper political shifts underway in North Texas? A closer look suggests the answer is less dramatic than either side’s loudest claims, but more consequential than a one-off anomaly.
A Candidate Who Fit the District
One of the clearest factors was Rehmet himself. Unlike many Democratic candidates in conservative districts, he did not arrive with a résumé rooted in national politics or progressive advocacy groups. Instead, he emphasized his background as a veteran and union worker and framed his candidacy around everyday economic concerns.
Texas Rep. Ramón Romero, who met Rehmet in 2024 and later helped him campaign, described him simply as a hard worker who treated the race like it was winnable. Romero said voters responded to the effort: “He is a hard worker. People think that you can just win elections. You’re gonna have to really work it, and he did.” Romero also noted that Republicans reached out to him after voting for Rehmet, suggesting crossover appeal mattered.
That personal fit contrasted sharply with Wambsganss, whose résumé tied her closely to national conservative activism. She serves as a senior executive at Patriot Mobile, a company deeply involved in backing hardline conservative school board candidates across Texas. While that profile energized parts of the Republican base, it also reinforced the perception that she represented national MAGA politics more than the district’s day-to-day concerns.
As one Democratic operative put it, Rehmet felt like “an absolute reflection of that district,” while Wambsganss reflected a national ideological movement. In a low-turnout election, that distinction mattered.
Ground Game Over Air War
Money usually dominates Texas politics, and on paper, this race should not have been close. Wambsganss raised about $2.6 million, compared with roughly $570,000 for Rehmet. Major conservative donors and PACs flooded the race, including groups tied to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and wealthy West Texas oil interests.
Rehmet’s campaign accepted early that it could not compete dollar for dollar on television and mail. Instead, campaign strategist Jake Davis focused on an old-fashioned ground strategy: door knocking, listening, and follow-up. The campaign set a goal of knocking on 40,000 doors and staffed up accordingly, training volunteers in active listening rather than scripted persuasion.
According to Davis, if a voter asked a question volunteers could not answer, the campaign would find the answer — sometimes calling Rehmet directly in front of the voter. It was a labor-intensive approach, but one well suited to a low-turnout special election where personal contact can outweigh mass advertising.
Groups like Beto O’Rourke’s Powered by People also played a role, particularly in voter registration and mail-ballot outreach. Still, even O’Rourke emphasized that the campaign itself deserved most of the credit, not outside help.
Latino Voters and Shifting Priorities
Perhaps the most consequential element of the upset was Rehmet’s performance with Latino voters, who make up just over 20 percent of eligible voters in the district. In some heavily Hispanic Fort Worth precincts, analysts found Rehmet outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential vote totals by more than 50 points.
Several factors may explain this. Some Latino voters had grown frustrated with the economic results of Trump’s return to office, believing earlier promises about improving their financial standing had not materialized. Others reacted strongly to recent immigration enforcement actions, including reports that federal agents killed two Americans during enforcement operations tied to the administration’s mass deportation agenda.
The result was not necessarily a wholesale ideological shift, but a situational realignment. As former Republican state Rep. Jason Villalba noted, Latino voting patterns are fluid and can change quickly: “It’s early. This was a strong indicator that Hispanics are moving back toward Democrats.”
Republican Challenges and Turnout
Republicans quickly pointed to turnout as a central explanation. The election was held on a cold Saturday in January, with no other races on the ballot — conditions that typically depress participation. Bo French, then the Tarrant County GOP chair, bluntly blamed Republican voters who stayed home, writing that when Republicans skip local and special elections, “Democrats win.”
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick echoed that sentiment, calling the loss a “wake-up call” and warning Republicans not to take any seat for granted. At the same time, former Southlake mayor John Huffman, who ran in the earlier round, criticized Wambsganss’ campaign for failing to unify Republicans and reach out to supporters of other GOP candidates.
These internal critiques suggest that organization and coalition-building on the Republican side were weaker than expected, particularly given the heavy financial investment.
What It Does — and Doesn’t — Mean
It is tempting to treat Rehmet’s victory as a bellwether for Texas turning blue. Some Democrats struck an optimistic tone, arguing that voters are fed up and open to change. Others urged caution. U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey warned against overinterpreting the result, saying Texas is not suddenly becoming New York or California and that candidates still need to tailor their message carefully to local realities.
That caution is well founded. Special elections are inherently unusual, and this one even more so. Only a fraction of registered voters participated, and Rehmet will face Wambsganss again in November under very different conditions.
Still, dismissing the result entirely would also miss the point. A 32-point swing from recent Republican margins cannot be explained by weather or calendar alone. The race highlighted how candidate fit, disciplined ground campaigning, Latino voter engagement, and backlash to hardline national politics can combine to produce surprising outcomes — even in districts long considered safely out of reach.
Rehmet’s win does not mean Texas has flipped. But it does show that political coalitions in places like Tarrant County are more flexible than recent history suggested. For both parties, the lesson is the same: no district is immune to change, and elections are still decided, one conversation at a time, on front porches and in living rooms.
