Texas is projected to gain four additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2030 reapportionment, according to forecasts from The American Redistricting Project. The estimate reflects continued population growth in the state, even as overall U.S. population growth has slowed in recent years.
Between 2010 and 2020, Texas added roughly four million residents and gained two congressional seats. Current projections suggest an even larger gain in the next reapportionment cycle. In contrast, California is predicted to lose four seats, continuing a trend of slower growth and population losses through domestic migration.
Under the same 2030 forecast, other states expected to gain congressional representation include Florida (+2), North Carolina (+1), Georgia (+1), Idaho (+1), Utah (+1), and Arizona (+1). States projected to lose seats include Oregon (-1), Minnesota (-1), Wisconsin (-1), Illinois (-1), New York (-1), Pennsylvania (-1), and Rhode Island (-1), in addition to California.
These projections align with recent population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau on January 27. The Census Bureau reported that U.S. population growth slowed between July 2024 and July 2025, largely due to a “historic decline in net international migration.” The release of the data was delayed as a result of a government shutdown in late 2025.
According to the Census Bureau, the national population grew by 0.5 percent over the last year, down from a 1 percent increase in 2024. “With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today,” said Christine Hartley, Assistant Division Chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau.
All four U.S. census regions experienced slower population growth compared to previous years, with the exception of the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic, when national growth fell to 0.2 percent. Despite the overall slowdown, population shifts between states continued to shape regional growth patterns.
Texas recorded population gains largely driven by domestic migration, while California experienced net losses due to residents moving to other states. Domestic migration losses were most pronounced in New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Massachusetts. North Carolina and Tennessee joined Texas among the states with the largest population gains from domestic migration.
Overall, all but five states saw population growth during the period measured. Texas recorded the largest numeric increase, growing by 1.2 percent, or approximately 391,243 people. This brought the state’s total population to an estimated 31.7 million, the highest numeric growth of any state.
Within Texas, growth has been concentrated in several mid-sized counties. World Population Review identified Kaufman, Liberty, Rockwall, and Comal counties as the fastest-growing in the state, surpassing growth rates in larger counties such as Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant.
The congressional seat projections come amid ongoing political attention to redistricting in Texas. In 2025, the state was involved in a mid-decade redistricting dispute that concluded when the U.S. Supreme Court approved the implementation of a new congressional map favored by Republicans for use in the 2026 primary elections. During that process, members of the Texas House Democratic Caucus were fined after breaking quorum in an effort to block the redistricting legislation.
Population trends and migration policy have also remained part of the broader discussion. The Census Bureau has stated that it “collects data from all foreign born who participate in its censuses and surveys, regardless of legal status.” Separately, Gov. Greg Abbott recently announced a pause on applications for H-1B visas for positions at Texas universities and state agencies. The H-1B program allows nonimmigrant workers with specialized skills to work in the United States.
