Republicans brace for lengthy shutdown as White House seeks to minimize political fallout

Republicans and the Trump administration are preparing for what increasingly looks like a prolonged government shutdown — one that could rival or even surpass the record 35-day lapse in funding during President Trump’s first term.

With negotiations between the White House and congressional Democrats at a standstill, administration officials are taking a series of preemptive steps to shield politically sensitive constituencies from the shutdown’s worst effects — while simultaneously putting pressure on Democrats to yield.

Military Pay Protected

The White House confirmed this week that it is redistributing funds to ensure active-duty service members continue to receive paychecks despite the lapse in appropriations. The move serves dual purposes: protecting a key Republican constituency and denying Democrats a vote to fund the military that could offer them political leverage.

“If the Democrats want to go to court and challenge troops being paid, bring it. OK,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said defiantly during a Capitol Hill press conference Tuesday, signaling that Republicans are ready to lean into the standoff.

Federal Law Enforcement and Nutrition Programs Next

According to officials at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the administration is also exploring ways to keep federal law enforcement officers paid during the shutdown — a politically potent move that would allow Republicans to argue they are prioritizing national security and public safety.

Additionally, the White House announced plans to sustain the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), which serves roughly six million Americans each month. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said hundreds of millions of dollars from “Section 32” tariff revenues will be used to fund the program temporarily.

“These programs are critical,” Leavitt said. “We’re making sure American families don’t suffer while Democrats refuse to do their job and reopen the government.”

A Stalemate with No End in Sight

The developments suggest the shutdown — already stretching past two weeks — may drag on well into November. That would surpass the 16-day shutdown of 2013 and approach the record 35-day closure of 2018–2019, which also centered on a standoff over border security funding.

“That’s what I’m thinking,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) when asked if the current impasse could last for months. “I hope I’m wrong.”

Capito called the drawn-out closure “disappointing” but placed the blame squarely on Democrats, urging them to “simply reopen the government and negotiate.”

“It’s so easy,” she said.

Democrats Hold Firm on Health Subsidies

Democrats, for their part, insist they won’t agree to any funding package unless it includes an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year. Those subsidies, they argue, are vital to keeping premiums affordable for millions of Americans.

Republicans have flatly rejected that condition, saying they will not engage in broader policy negotiations until the government is reopened.

“I remember when Democrats used to care about the effects of a shutdown,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said Tuesday. “Now it’s clear their concern was never about principle — only politics.”

Thune accused Democrats of catering to their “far-left base” rather than the concerns of “everyday Americans.”

Key Deadlines Loom

While the ACA subsidies officially expire on Dec. 31, Democrats argue that the real deadline is Oct. 31, since open enrollment for 2026 coverage begins on Nov. 1. They included that date in their latest proposal for a short-term funding measure, which also called for a permanent extension of the health subsidies, the reversal of Medicaid cuts, and the restoration of certain funds clawed back in previous GOP budget bills.

“Republicans can say there’s nothing to negotiate,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the Senate floor. “But if they don’t act soon, 20 million Americans could see their health premiums skyrocket.”

“The ACA premium crisis is not a fix-it-later issue,” he continued. “It’s a fix-it-now issue.”

No Urgency in Washington

Despite rising economic uncertainty and the growing likelihood of a long shutdown, there is little sign of urgency on Capitol Hill. The House remains in recess until next week — with no votes held for nearly a month — as Speaker Johnson keeps attention on Senate Democrats.

The Senate, meanwhile, is expected to leave town by Thursday afternoon, with lawmakers in Washington for less than 48 hours this week.

“We’re barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history,” Johnson warned Monday. “Unless Democrats drop their partisan demands and pass a clean, no-strings-attached budget, this will be their shutdown to own.”

For now, both sides appear dug in, each calculating that the public will eventually blame the other. But as the standoff drags into its third week, millions of federal workers — and the broader economy — are left to brace for impact.