The 2025 college football season kicks off this weekend, and all eyes in Lubbock are on Texas Tech. According to PFF College’s preseason playoff bracket, the Red Raiders stand as the lone Big 12 program projected to crack the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, slotted as the No. 10 seed. For a program that has worked for years to reassert itself nationally, the prediction signals a surge of momentum and validates an offseason marked by bold roster moves.
At the heart of the optimism is quarterback Behren Morton. Returning for his fourth season as the Red Raiders’ starter, Morton has grown into one of the most reliable signal-callers in the country. Last year, he piled up 3,335 passing yards with 27 touchdowns while limiting turnovers to just eight interceptions. Those numbers earned him a place on the 2025 Golden Arm Award watchlist and set the tone for what many believe could be a career-defining season. The Red Raiders’ offense has steadily built around his poise and accuracy, and Morton now carries the burden of turning individual production into program-wide success.
Morton’s connection with wide receiver Caleb Douglas is expected to be a focal point. Douglas became a breakout star in 2024, finishing with 60 receptions for 877 yards. His chemistry with Morton was clear by midseason, and his knack for making contested catches downfield turned him into the offense’s security blanket. Entering this year, Douglas is widely projected to surpass the 1,000-yard milestone, giving Tech a true No. 1 option against elite competition.
Head coach Joey McGuire, who has steadily reshaped the program’s identity since taking over, doubled down on aggressive roster building this offseason. Through the transfer portal, McGuire landed three impact players expected to make immediate contributions. Former Stanford pass rusher David Bailey joins the defensive front after posting seven sacks and forcing five fumbles last year in the ACC. He provides a badly needed spark for a defense that ranked 15th in the Big 12 and gave up a bruising 34.8 points per game in 2024. If Bailey can replicate his disruptive presence, Texas Tech’s defense could elevate from liability to serviceable—a shift that would change the team’s ceiling.
On the offensive side, McGuire secured Texas A&M transfer Micah Hudson, a wideout with speed and versatility. Hudson brings big-play potential, giving Morton another downfield option alongside Douglas. Defensive depth was bolstered as well with the arrival of UCF lineman Lee Hunter, who adds size and experience in the trenches. Each addition signals that Texas Tech is no longer relying solely on homegrown development but is actively targeting experienced players who can raise the program’s competitive floor.
Still, not everything has gone according to plan. The Red Raiders suffered a significant setback when running back Quinten Joyner, one of the most highly anticipated transfer arrivals, went down with a season-ending injury before Week 1. Joyner was expected to be a difference-maker with his blend of speed and power, giving Tech a balanced attack. Without him, the backfield rotation will lean on less proven contributors, putting more pressure on Morton’s arm and McGuire’s play-calling creativity.
The upcoming opener offers Texas Tech a chance to build confidence before diving into the heart of the schedule. The Red Raiders begin at home on Saturday, Aug. 30, against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a matchup designed to fine-tune the offense and gauge progress on defense. While the Golden Lions are not expected to pose a serious challenge, the game will provide early insight into how seamlessly the new additions have integrated and whether the defense shows signs of improvement.
Beyond the opener, the national conversation will continue to focus on playoff projections. According to PFF’s early bracket, Texas Tech is forecasted to draw Ohio State, the No. 7 seed, in the first round. While the Buckeyes are projected to win that matchup, simply being included in the field represents a landmark achievement for the Red Raiders. It reflects a program on the rise and a conference landscape in which Tech has become the Big 12’s standard-bearer entering 2025.
The expanded playoff format has opened doors for programs like Texas Tech, which often battled uphill against traditional powers under the previous four-team system. Now, the Red Raiders’ path is less about perfection and more about sustaining competitiveness over the course of the season. If Morton maintains his steady play, Douglas emerges as a premier weapon, and the defense makes modest strides, Texas Tech could not only meet projections but perhaps even exceed them.
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