Republicans are plowing forward with plans for redistricting in several states now that Texas is poised to approve its newly redrawn maps, signaling a new and aggressive phase in the national fight over congressional control.
The Lone Star State kicked off the redistricting arms race when Republicans in the state Legislature agreed to rewrite their congressional lines at the insistence of President Trump. That decision, taken mid-decade rather than after the census, has reshaped the political battlefield and encouraged Republicans across the country to pursue similar steps.
Now, as Democrats in California look to counter Texas with their own redistricting plan, the GOP is setting its sights on states from Florida to Indiana to Missouri. The result is a multipronged effort to expand Republican power in the House of Representatives heading into the next election cycle.
Missouri Republican strategist Gregg Keller explained the party’s reasoning:
“There’s not much more Democrats can do at this point, which is kind of part and parcel of the Republican reason behind doing this. The question is whether or not we are going to unilaterally disarm as a party in the face of what they have done.”
Texas: The Opening Move
Texas became the focal point of the national conversation after Trump urged Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to call a special legislative session to pursue redistricting—an unusual but not unprecedented step.
The proposed Texas map could create as many as five new Republican-leaning districts. If enacted, those gains would give the GOP its single largest advantage in any state and significantly improve the party’s chances of maintaining control of the House.
The success of Texas Republicans in advancing the maps has also provided a blueprint for other states, showing both the legal viability and political momentum behind mid-decade redistricting.
California’s Countermove
In response, Democrats in California are weighing their own aggressive step: a ballot measure that would allow the state Legislature to redraw the map for the remainder of the decade. If passed, Democrats could potentially add up to five additional seats in California, offsetting GOP gains elsewhere.
That possibility has raised the stakes for smaller states where Republicans are pushing for one or two new seats. Even incremental changes could prove decisive given the razor-thin margins that have characterized recent House majorities.
Florida: DeSantis Seizes Opportunity
Florida stands out as another major battleground. Republican strategist Ford O’Connell noted that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) originally sought a more ambitious map during the last redistricting process but met resistance.
A ruling from the Florida Supreme Court upholding the current map, combined with Trump’s advocacy, has emboldened DeSantis to revisit the issue. According to O’Connell, Republicans could seek to add between one and five seats, potentially targeting Democratic incumbents like Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz.
“The overall takeaway is DeSantis wanted to do more back in the beginning of the redistricting here in 2020,” O’Connell said. “Now, because of that court decision and the political reality at the moment, he’s going to be able to do what he thinks should have been done in the beginning.”
DeSantis has consistently backed mid-decade redistricting, and a new redistricting committee is expected to be announced soon.
Ohio: A Required Rewrite
Unlike states voluntarily reopening their maps, Ohio is legally required to redraw its congressional districts ahead of the midterms. State law mandates a new map after the prior version passed on party lines without the supermajority needed for long-term validity.
In practice, Republicans stand to benefit from the redo. Analysts believe the GOP could add two or three seats, placing Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes at risk.
Ohio Republican strategist Mark Weaver underscored the importance of even modest gains:
“Every state matters when it comes to a House majority that’s this close.”
Indiana: Resistance Meets Pressure
Indiana has been slower to act, with some Republican legislators questioning whether redistricting is necessary. The state currently sends seven Republicans and two Democrats to Congress, and party leaders see the potential to squeeze out one more seat.
President Trump and his team have applied direct pressure. Indiana lawmakers are scheduled to meet with White House officials this week to discuss advancing the administration’s agenda. While the invitation frames the gathering around broader state and local priorities, Republicans expect redistricting to be at the top of the agenda.
One Trump ally put the message bluntly:
“You want the America First agenda to continue? This is the best way to make sure it happens. And oh yeah, this is legal and right.”
Some Trump allies have gone further, warning lawmakers who hesitate that they could face primary challenges. Conservative activist Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, posted that he would back primary opponents in the Indiana State Legislature if they refused to support redistricting.
Signs of the pressure campaign’s success are already emerging. Indiana state Rep. Craig Haggard (R), who initially expressed skepticism, recently shifted to supporting redistricting after days of conversations with colleagues and national allies.
Missouri: A Target on Cleaver
In Missouri, redistricting was not a central focus until Trump personally intervened. According to Keller, the dynamic changed dramatically when the president called Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) to encourage him to move forward.
Lawmakers are expected to take up the issue during their upcoming veto session. The likely target is Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D), who represents the Kansas City area. If Cleaver’s seat is redrawn to favor Republicans, Missouri could be left with only one Democratic House member.
“The composition of our legislature for Republicans is not quite as conservative, and certainly not as anti-establishment, as where Republican voters in the state are,” Keller explained. “However, when the president and the White House got involved in this, everyone kind of hopped to pretty quickly. Conservative and moderate Republicans as well as … even moderate Republicans are largely going to fall in line.”
Trump’s Direct Approach
The common denominator across states is President Trump’s willingness to push openly for redistricting. Republican strategists note that Democrats, under former President Barack Obama and former Attorney General Eric Holder, worked more quietly to influence maps through fundraising and legal challenges. Trump, by contrast, has made his efforts public.
A source close to the White House explained:
“Obama and Holder have raised money to push for gerrymandering quietly in past years, but Trump doesn’t do things in the shadows. He’s just come out and made it pretty direct.”
Republicans say that even lawmakers representing safe red districts are willing to accept slightly tougher conditions if it means the party gains additional seats overall. As one strategist put it, “everyone understands what the mission is.”
The Broader Stakes
Redistricting battles are not new, but their mid-decade timing is. Traditionally, congressional maps remain fixed until the next census. By reopening the process now, Republicans are testing the boundaries of political and legal norms, betting that incremental gains across multiple states could lock in a durable House majority.
Democrats are not without options—California’s ballot measure could offset GOP gains—but they face more limited opportunities due to Republican control of many state legislatures.
The outcome of this redistricting wave will likely shape Congress for years. Whether it’s a handful of seats in Ohio, one in Indiana, or as many as five in Texas or Florida, the combined effect could determine which party holds the gavel.
As Weaver summed it up:
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