It’s been a busy offseason in Lubbock. Joey McGuire and the Texas Tech Red Raiders haven’t just been dabbling in the Transfer Portal — they’ve been treating it like a personal shopping spree. Need help at wide receiver? Check. Depth on the defensive line? Check. Experienced secondary help? Double check. The roster looks deeper and more balanced than it has in years.
With all that talent infusion, it’s fair to think Tech fans should be talking about a big breakthrough season.
Yet, if you look at some of the national projections, you wouldn’t know it.
The Numbers Say “Good, Not Great”
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), Texas Tech is currently slotted as the No. 7 team in the Big 12. Not terrible, but not exactly top-tier. The FPI math machines also project a 7.9-4.2 record — essentially 8-4 if you round the decimals.
Meanwhile, over in Las Vegas, the folks at Fanduel have set Tech’s win total over/under at 8.5. That means the sportsbooks are basically saying: “This team’s ceiling is right around eight or nine wins… but we’re leaning toward the lower end.”
So how can Texas Tech push past that, prove the doubters wrong, and land a nine-win regular season? Let’s break it down logically.
Step One: Handle Business in September
The first three games of the 2025 season are about as friendly as a Big 12 program could ask for.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Sept. 6) – An FCS opponent. Tech has no business letting this be a contest past the first quarter.
Kent State (Sept. 13) – A MAC program in the middle of a rebuild. The Golden Flashes struggled heavily last year, and there’s no reason to expect a massive turnaround by fall.
Oregon State (Sept. 27) – This one might sound tricky if you remember the Beavers’ recent success, but context matters. The Pac-12 breakup gutted their roster, and this year’s OSU team is rebuilding in a hybrid schedule against Mountain West-level competition. This game is in Lubbock, which is a huge plus.
There’s no need to overcomplicate things — these should be three comfortable wins.
Running tally: 3-0
Step Two: Defend the Home Turf
If Tech wants to flirt with nine wins, it needs to make Lubbock a fortress. That means holding serve against Big 12 opponents at home.
Kansas (Oct. 11) – The Jayhawks are a dangerous team when healthy, but the Red Raiders have the advantage here. Lubbock crowd, bye week before, and a defense that should match up well against Kansas’ run game.
Oklahoma State (Oct. 25) – The Cowboys are breaking in new faces after key departures. Tech should be favored here.
BYU (Nov. 8) – A tricky team to gauge, especially if they figure out their QB situation. Still, BYU’s road struggles last season were glaring.
UCF (Nov. 15) – Year one under Scott Frost 2.0. Unless UCF’s offense suddenly clicks in a big way, Tech’s depth and home-field advantage should be too much.
If Tech goes 4-0 at home in these Big 12 games, that puts them at 7-0 overall before we even talk about road opportunities.
Running tally: 7-0
Step Three: Steal Two on the Road
This is where the nine-win dream becomes realistic. The Red Raiders have five road games in Big 12 play, and they only need to win two of them to hit the target.
The Road Slate:
at Utah (Sept. 20) – The Utes are always tough at home, but this is a September game before their conference schedule heats up. If Tech can catch Utah still figuring out their offensive identity, it’s possible… but not easy.
at Houston (Oct. 4) – This is one of the most winnable road games on the schedule. Houston is still rebuilding under new leadership, and Tech’s depth should overwhelm them.
at Arizona State (Oct. 18) – Tempe can be a tricky place to play, and ASU’s athleticism on defense could cause problems. This one feels more 50/50.
at Kansas State (Nov. 1) – The Wildcats are a perennial Big 12 contender with one of the toughest home-field advantages in the league. This is a tall order.
at West Virginia (Nov. 29) – Morgantown in late November can be a challenge weather-wise, but if Tech is healthy, this is a game they can take.
The Most Likely Path:
If Tech wins at Houston and West Virginia — both very doable — they’re at 9-0 heading into the tougher matchups. Even if they drop games to Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State, they’d still finish the regular season 9-3.
Why This Isn’t Just Blind Optimism
It’s easy to be a homer and pencil in wins everywhere, but there are concrete reasons to believe in this team’s potential.
1. Roster Upgrades Across the Board
McGuire’s aggressive use of the Transfer Portal didn’t just add bodies — it added experienced starters. This isn’t about filling depth charts with freshmen; this is about plugging in proven playmakers who have already succeeded at the FBS level.
2. Year-Over-Year Continuity
For the first time in a while, Tech has real stability in its coaching staff and scheme. Players aren’t having to learn a brand-new system in spring ball. That allows for cleaner execution early in the season — which is crucial in those toss-up road games.
3. Big 12 Landscape in Flux
With Texas and Oklahoma gone, the conference doesn’t have a clear juggernaut. Utah, Kansas State, and maybe Oklahoma State are the top dogs, but none are untouchable. The gap between No. 1 and No. 7 in this league is thinner than most years.
The Margin for Error
Of course, hitting nine wins won’t be automatic.
Injuries – Tech has more depth than before, but losing a QB or key defensive leader could derail things quickly.
Turnover Luck – Close road games often come down to who forces or loses the big turnover. One unlucky bounce could swing a potential win into the loss column.
Killer Stretch – The middle of the season (Utah → Houston → Kansas → Arizona State → Oklahoma State) could determine everything. A 4-1 run there sets up the home stretch nicely; a 2-3 stumble could force Tech into must-win mode.
The Prediction:
If Tech starts 3-0, sweeps their home Big 12 games, and grabs at least two road wins (Houston + West Virginia seem most likely), they’ll be sitting at 9-3 heading into bowl season. That would:
Beat the ESPN FPI projection of 7.9 wins
Beat the Vegas line of 8.5 wins
Cement McGuire as one of the Big 12’s rising coaching stars
Would 10 wins be crazy? Not necessarily — but that would require either upsetting a Utah/Kansas State type on the road or going undefeated at home against a tricky slate.
Final Thought:
The path to nine wins isn’t pie-in-the-sky dreaming — it’s the product of smart roster building, favorable scheduling, and a Big 12 that’s as open as it’s been in years. If the Red Raiders stay healthy and keep momentum in those first three games, they could be in for their best regular season in over a decade.
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