President Donald Trump is ramping up pressure on key U.S. trading partners, warning that countries refusing to finalize trade agreements with the United States by August 1 will be hit with steep tariffs ranging from 15 to 20 percent.
“We’re going to be setting a tariff for essentially the rest of the world,” Trump said Monday, citing the impracticality of negotiating hundreds of individual deals. “You can’t sit down and do 200 deals. But we made the big ones.”
While some nations have already reached agreements, others remain in tense or stalled negotiations. Trump’s ultimatum marks a significant escalation in his administration’s ongoing push to restructure America’s trade relationships — and could trigger economic turbulence if the threatened tariffs go into effect.
CHINA: Fragile Progress Amid Heavy Stakes
The U.S. and China remain in delicate negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese officials this week in both Beijing and Stockholm — the third round of talks since May. Though no final deal has been announced, there are signs the tariff pause implemented earlier this year may be extended.
Trump is set to be briefed Wednesday on a potential extension. “We’ll either approve it or not,” he said. He downplayed the likelihood of a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping despite speculation that such a meeting could follow progress in talks.
The stakes are high: U.S.-China trade reached over $582 billion in 2024, according to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). Earlier this year, both sides imposed dramatic tariffs — 145% from the U.S. and 125% from China — before easing tensions with a temporary pause.
CANADA AND MEXICO: Two Neighbors, Two Very Different Talks
Canada has seen little movement in talks. Trump recently characterized negotiations with America’s northern neighbor as ineffective, stating bluntly: “I think Canada could be one where they’ll just pay tariffs.”
In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump threatened a 35% tariff. Canada was the third-largest source of U.S. imports in 2024, totaling $412.7 billion, while the U.S. exported $349.4 billion worth of goods to Canada.
Mexico, the U.S.’s top trading partner, is facing its own tariff threats. Trump warned of a 30% tariff, citing the flow of fentanyl across the southern border — an issue he had previously used to justify a 25% tariff earlier this year. In a letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Trump made clear that trade cooperation is contingent on addressing cross-border drug trafficking.
EUROPEAN UNION: Deal Reached, But Not Without Tension
Earlier this month, Trump announced a 30% tariff on European Union goods — but has since struck a deal lowering that to 15%, averting a deeper trade rift with the bloc.
SOUTH KOREA: No Breakthrough in Sight
With no reported progress in negotiations, South Korea remains in limbo. President Lee Jae-myung recently admitted talks with the U.S. have been “clearly not easy.” The U.S. hit Korean imports with a 25% tariff in April.
In 2024, U.S.-South Korea trade totaled nearly $196 billion — including $131 billion in imports from Korea and $65 billion in exports.
TAIWAN: Treading Carefully Amid U.S.-China Dynamics
Taiwan is walking a diplomatic tightrope as it eyes a potential trade deal that could be complicated by ongoing U.S.-China talks. Sources say Taiwan is concerned it may be sidelined if Trump prioritizes his relationship with Beijing.
Earlier this year, Trump imposed a 32% tariff on Taiwanese imports. Trade between the U.S. and Taiwan totaled more than $158 billion in 2024.
The administration’s reported refusal to allow Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te a U.S. stopover next month has only deepened concerns in Taipei that Washington may be rebalancing away from longstanding support.
INDIA: Delays and Doubts
Despite months of promises, a U.S.-India trade deal remains elusive. Asked Tuesday if one had been finalized, Trump replied, “No, it’s not,” and threatened a 25% tariff on Indian goods.
India was the U.S.’s 10th-largest trading partner in 2024, with two-way trade worth about $130 billion. Trump had already imposed a 26% tariff on Indian imports earlier this year.
BRAZIL: Tariff Retaliation Tied to Bolsonaro Prosecution
In an unusual move, Trump tied a 50% tariff on Brazil to the ongoing legal case against former president Jair Bolsonaro, whom Trump has publicly supported.
Calling the prosecution a “witch hunt,” Trump sent a strongly worded letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In 2024, Brazil-U.S. trade totaled $92 billion, with more U.S. exports than imports.
SWITZERLAND: Close to a Deal
Switzerland appears close to a finalized trade agreement. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter said she was “hopeful” a deal would be signed ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline.
In April, Switzerland was hit with a 31% tariff on its exports to the U.S. The two countries exchanged $88 billion in goods in 2024.
THAILAND: Ceasefire Opens the Door to Trade Talks
After days of fighting with Cambodia, Thailand agreed to a ceasefire on Monday — a move that immediately reopened trade negotiations with the U.S.
Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said he expects a “very good” deal. Trump imposed a 36% tariff on Thai goods in April, but said negotiations were resuming in good faith.
U.S.-Thailand trade reached $81 billion in 2024.
Looking Ahead
With the Aug. 1 deadline looming, Trump’s tariff ultimatum is shaping up to be one of the most consequential trade moves of his presidency — potentially affecting trillions in global commerce. Some nations are scrambling to close last-minute deals, while others appear resigned to the tariffs.
Though Trump has framed the policy as a bid to rebalance “unfair” trade dynamics, critics argue the uncertainty is rattling markets and risking retaliation from allies and rivals alike.
