President Donald Trump met Wednesday evening with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and officials from the Senate Leadership Fund to discuss the upcoming 2026 Senate races, with particular focus on the increasingly heated Republican primary in Texas between Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to a source familiar with the meeting.
While the meeting covered a broad range of Senate contests, Cornyn’s race reportedly drew significant attention. The Texas primary has become a source of concern for Republican leaders, who worry that infighting could jeopardize the GOP's hold on a key Senate seat — especially in a year where control of the chamber will be fiercely contested.
Cornyn, a veteran senator with deep establishment ties, faces a serious challenge from Paxton, a staunch conservative who has cultivated strong support from Trump’s base. Both are allies of the president, but Trump has so far declined to endorse either candidate.
Recent polling suggests Paxton is leading Cornyn in the primary, which is scheduled for February 2026. However, internal GOP data indicates that Paxton may be a weaker candidate in the general election. A poll from Texas Southern University last month showed Cornyn leading likely Democratic nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred by 4 points, while Paxton led Allred by only 2. A separate survey commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund showed Cornyn up by 6 over Allred, Paxton trailing by 1, and another potential GOP candidate, Rep. Wesley Hunt, leading Allred by 4.
Republican strategists believe that a Trump endorsement could shift the primary in Cornyn’s favor and help avoid a risky general election. “The president’s support remains the single most powerful force in Republican primaries,” said one GOP operative familiar with the race. “His decision here could determine whether we keep this seat or put it in jeopardy.”
With Democrats smelling opportunity, the stakes are growing. The Texas Democratic Party and Texas Majority PAC launched a major campaign last week — dubbed Blue Texas — aiming to flip state and federal seats. The initiative, backed by an eight-figure investment, reflects growing Democratic optimism as Republicans feud internally.
“Republicans are tearing themselves apart, and that gives us a real opening,” said a senior Democratic strategist. “If they nominate a scandal-plagued candidate like Ken Paxton, we believe Texas is truly in play.”
Paxton, who has faced ongoing legal scrutiny during his time as attorney general, remains popular among conservative activists but polarizing among independents and suburban voters — key demographics in a general election.
For now, President Trump is staying above the fray, but his role remains central. His advisers say he is weighing both loyalty and electability as he considers how to approach a primary between two longtime allies. The outcome could determine not only who represents Texas in the Senate, but whether the GOP retains its upper hand in Washington in 2026.
