Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) once-unshakable hold on his Senate seat is facing its most serious threat in years as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton continues to widen his lead in the Republican primary, according to new polling that has sent shockwaves through the state’s political establishment.
A new survey by GOP pollster Robert Blizzard, commissioned by the Educational Freedom Institute, shows Paxton leading Cornyn by a staggering 22-point margin among likely Republican primary voters. The poll also reveals Paxton’s strength among key conservative demographics, including older voters and self-identified “MAGA” Republicans — two groups Cornyn once counted as reliable supporters.
The results, while dismissed by Cornyn’s campaign as part of “silly season” polling, are consistent with other recent surveys that suggest the three-term incumbent is struggling to reconnect with a Republican base that has grown increasingly skeptical of establishment-aligned figures.
“This is a warning shot,” said one Republican strategist familiar with Texas politics. “If Cornyn doesn’t get aggressive and fast, this thing could be over before it even begins.”
An Unfamiliar Position for a Veteran Senator
For Cornyn, who has comfortably won every race since his first statewide campaign in the 1990s, the numbers represent unfamiliar territory. Once seen as a consensus-builder and influential voice in GOP Senate leadership, Cornyn now finds himself the target of conservative backlash — particularly for his role in crafting bipartisan gun safety legislation after the tragic 2022 school shooting in Uvalde.
That legislation, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, sparked outrage among grassroots conservatives who viewed it as a betrayal of Second Amendment principles. Cornyn was loudly booed at the 2022 Texas GOP convention, and some local Republican groups went as far as censuring him.
Compounding his challenges, Cornyn publicly doubted Donald Trump’s political viability in 2023, saying the former president’s “time had passed.” Though he later reversed course and endorsed Trump, the damage with some in the MAGA-aligned base appears to have been done.
“Holy cow,” said one unnamed GOP strategist. “How does he ever anticipate climbing back into the good graces of a MAGA-led GOP base with those two anchors around his neck?”
Paxton Rides a Wave of Grassroots Support
In contrast, Paxton has emerged from his own political troubles — including a high-profile impeachment trial in the Texas House — with his standing among conservative voters largely intact, if not enhanced. Acquitted on 16 articles of impeachment, Paxton has leaned into his image as a combative populist and survivor of what he calls an “establishment witch hunt.”
“He’s seen as a fighter,” said Republican donor and Paxton backer Dan Eberhart. “Paxton is tapping into that same anti-establishment energy that powered Trump’s rise.”
Paxton has been a key player in a broader ideological civil war within the Texas GOP, targeting more moderate lawmakers and pushing for ideological purity. His attacks on fellow Republicans during and after the impeachment proceedings earned him credibility with hardline conservatives — and seemingly boosted his campaign for higher office.
“He’s not just running against Cornyn,” said Brendan Steinhauser, Cornyn’s former campaign manager. “He’s running against Washington. And a lot of GOP primary voters are responding to that.”
Cornyn Campaign Begins Counteroffensive
Cornyn’s campaign, though slow to engage early on, is beginning to strike back. Last week, it launched a series of digital ads accusing Paxton of “funding the left” through grants distributed by the attorney general’s office. The campaign has also started to highlight Paxton’s legal troubles and past controversies, framing him as unelectable in a general election.
“The primary is in nine months,” said Cornyn adviser Matt Mackowiak. “This is going to be a very close race, and Sen. Cornyn is fully committed to winning it.”
Cornyn allies point to more favorable numbers from a Texas Southern University poll, which showed him trailing Paxton by a narrower nine-point margin — and still leading potential Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred in a general election matchup. Paxton, by contrast, was essentially tied with Allred, trailing him by one point.
But internal data from the Paxton campaign, shared earlier this week, suggests even a potential Trump endorsement of Cornyn might not shift the race. After voters in the survey were told to assume Trump endorsed Cornyn, and were reminded of Cornyn’s bipartisan work on gun safety, the senator still trailed Paxton 62% to 21%.
What’s Next?
Despite the gloomy polling, few are counting Cornyn out just yet. With deep war chests, national fundraising networks, and experience running high-stakes campaigns, Cornyn’s team believes a full-throttle push later in the cycle could reverse current trends — especially if Trump opts to stay out of the race.
“These races don’t move much until the end,” said a senior Cornyn adviser. “You’d be wasting money to spend money right now. Cornyn’s going to have to spend money though — and he will.”
Still, the momentum, for now, is clearly on Paxton’s side.
“This race is a proxy battle for the future of the Republican Party in Texas,” Steinhauser said. “And right now, it’s MAGA versus the establishment — and the establishment is behind.”
