The race for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat in 2026 is already shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political battles in the country — and it hasn’t even officially begun for most candidates. A new poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows Attorney General Ken Paxton with a solid early lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn among likely Republican primary voters. The numbers suggest a clear shift in the ideological center of gravity within Texas's GOP — and a warning sign for longtime incumbents viewed as too moderate or disconnected from the party’s base.
Paxton vs. Cornyn: Early Head-to-Head
In a direct matchup, Paxton garners 43% support compared to Cornyn’s 34% among likely GOP primary voters. That 9-point lead highlights how deeply Paxton’s support has solidified among conservatives, despite the controversies that have followed him — or perhaps because of them, as some Republican voters view him as a fighter against political elites and the establishment.
Cornyn, a four-term senator with deep institutional support, finds himself with a high “hard no” factor: 23% of Republican respondents said they would never vote for him. That’s the highest number for any potential GOP contender in the poll. In contrast, 42% said they would definitely consider voting for Paxton.
What Happens If Wesley Hunt Jumps In?
The addition of Congressman Wesley Hunt, who has been testing the waters with personal ads and public appearances across the state, adds a wildcard to the race. In a three-way contest, Paxton still leads with 34%, followed by Cornyn at 27% and Hunt at 15%.
Interestingly, Hunt trails Paxton by a wide 30-point margin in a direct matchup, but is only 8 points behind Cornyn. This suggests that Hunt and Cornyn may be drawing from the same pool of voters — likely more traditional conservatives and those weary of Paxton’s controversies. Hunt’s relatively high net favorability rating of +30 (with 53% of respondents saying they don’t yet know enough about him) indicates room for growth, particularly if he gains more name recognition and defines himself clearly in contrast to the two better-known candidates.
Favorability Ratings Paint a Clearer Picture
Favorability among Republican voters in the poll shows the distinct reputational gaps:
Ken Paxton: +46
Wesley Hunt: +30
John Cornyn: +23
This dynamic mirrors the broader trend in the GOP, where candidates with strong populist credentials and ties to Donald Trump enjoy higher support among the base. Indeed, 50% of respondents said a Trump endorsement would likely influence their vote — a number that underscores the continued dominance of Trump’s brand in Texas Republican politics. Paxton has already been aligned with Trump in both policy and style, while Cornyn has distanced himself at times, including critical moments in the Senate.
How Do the Republicans Stack Up in a General Election?
The poll also surveyed likely general election voters and compared net favorability ratings for six potential Senate candidates — three Republicans and three Democrats:
Wesley Hunt: +9 (53% unknown)
Colin Allred: +7 (17% unknown)
Joaquin Castro: +7 (40% unknown)
Ken Paxton: EVEN (12% unknown)
Beto O’Rourke: -6 (8% unknown)
John Cornyn: -8 (14% unknown)
These numbers suggest that while Hunt may be the most electable Republican in a general election (at least on paper), he has yet to define himself clearly to voters statewide. Paxton, while strong in the primary, could face tougher odds in a general election — he polls only 2 points ahead of Allred, a Democratic Congressman from Dallas with rising name recognition and a modestly favorable image.
The Bigger Picture: The GOP's Identity Crisis
This early polling doesn't just preview a potential upset in the 2026 GOP primary; it also reflects the ongoing transformation of the Texas Republican Party. Paxton’s lead — despite years of legal scrutiny, impeachment efforts, and ethical questions — highlights just how much the party’s base now values confrontation, loyalty to Trump, and defiance of perceived establishment figures over experience or moderation.
Cornyn’s declining support is a symptom of that shift. Once a safe establishment figure, his more traditional Senate record may now be a liability rather than an asset. Hunt offers a more charismatic and fresh-faced alternative, but he must break through the entrenched support Paxton already commands.
Other Races: A Quick Snapshot
The survey also gauged voter sentiment in two upcoming statewide races:
Attorney General: State Sen. Mayes Middleton leads the field with a +17 favorability rating, closely followed by fellow state senators Joan Huffman and Bryan Hughes.
Comptroller: Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick shows a strong +28 net favorability, ahead of former state Sen. Don Huffines at +22.
Additionally, school choice — a hot topic in Texas politics — enjoys broad support, with nearly two-thirds of voters backing the education savings accounts program signed into law by Gov. Greg Abbott. The only group showing majority opposition is white Democrats, at just 31% support.
What to Watch Moving Forward
It’s still early in the 2026 cycle, and much can change. Fundraising, media coverage, endorsements — particularly from Trump — and how much traction Hunt gains could all dramatically alter the dynamics. But this poll is a clear warning for Cornyn: name recognition alone won't save a candidate from a base that’s hungry for disruption.
