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Trump dominating swing states

There are about seven months until Election Day, but right now, Donald Trump’s road to victory in the 2024 presidential race looks surprisingly smooth.

If you’re Joe Biden, you would prefer to consistently lead in swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That is not the case. 

You can find a good poll for Biden here and there, but the majority point to Trump leads — usually narrow, but sometimes not-so-narrow.”

This brought out the usual expressions of skepticism.

The Wall Street Journal, late last night:

The poll of the election’s main battlegrounds shows Trump holding leads of between 2 and 8 percentage points in six states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—on a test ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates. Trump holds similar leads when voters are asked to choose only between him and Biden.

The one outlier is Wisconsin, where Biden leads by 3 points on the multiple-candidate ballot, and where the two candidates are tied in a head-to-head matchup.

Again, the numbers in these states could change, and Biden’s support could increase. But a lot of Democrats are whistling past the graveyard and just assuming that by autumn, Biden will be neck-and-neck in all the swing states that matter most. It is unclear what will prompt a significant change in the numbers in a contest between two exceptionally well-known and largely disliked candidates.

And once again, for a swing state, North Carolina does not seem all that swing-y.

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