In a move that could reshape the balance of political power across the United States, President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he has directed the Department of Commerce to conduct a new census that excludes illegal immigrants from the official population count.
In a Truth Social post early Tuesday morning, Trump stated, “I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024. People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS.”
The decision immediately set off a wave of legal and constitutional concerns. Under Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, a national census must be conducted every ten years to determine congressional representation. Historically, the census has included all residents of the country—citizens and noncitizens alike—since it was first carried out in 1790.
Legal Uncertainty Surrounds the Move
While the president can direct executive agencies to gather data, experts note that only Congress has the authority to mandate how the official census is conducted and how its data is used for congressional apportionment.
“It’s highly questionable whether the executive branch can unilaterally redefine who gets counted,” said constitutional law professor Maria Adams of Georgetown University. “The Constitution is clear that the census is to count the 'whole number of persons' in each state. That has always included undocumented immigrants.”
Trump made a similar attempt during his first term to exclude illegal immigrants from the 2020 census data used for apportioning House seats. That effort faced immediate court challenges and was ultimately halted when President Joe Biden reversed the directive upon taking office in 2021.
High Stakes for Redistricting and Federal Funding
If illegal immigrants are excluded from the census count, the consequences could be profound for both congressional representation and the distribution of federal funds.
Apportionment of House seats and Electoral College votes is based on total state population. States with large immigrant populations—such as California, Texas, Florida, and New York—could lose seats, while states with smaller noncitizen populations—such as Ohio, Alabama, and Minnesota—could gain representation.
According to a 2021 Pew Research Center analysis, had noncitizens been excluded from the 2020 census, California, Texas, and Florida would each have lost a House seat, while states like Alabama and Ohio would have kept seats they were set to lose.
Beyond political representation, the census also guides the allocation of over $1.5 trillion in federal funding annually, covering programs such as Medicaid, highway construction, public housing, and education. A narrower definition of population could shift billions in resources away from states with large immigrant communities.
Redistricting Battles and Legal Showdowns Loom
Trump’s directive comes at a critical moment, with the next round of redistricting battles expected ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Republican-led states may seize on the president’s order to justify redrawing congressional maps, particularly in light of recent legal challenges to racial and partisan gerrymandering.
The Justice Department last month warned Texas to revise its current congressional map, citing racial gerrymandering concerns under the Voting Rights Act. Trump's census directive could further complicate the legal and political landscape by altering the very data used to define those districts.
“This move isn’t just about the census—it’s about who gets power in America,” said civil rights attorney Jonathan Moreno. “If the count excludes millions of people living and working here, it changes who gets heard in Congress.”
Republican Support and Democratic Opposition
Many Republicans have long supported limiting census counts to citizens, arguing that representation should reflect the will of legal residents. In 2018, Alabama filed a lawsuit claiming it would unfairly lose a House seat if illegal immigrants were included in the 2020 count.
“Congressional seats should be apportioned based on the population of American citizens, not illegal aliens,” then-Representative Mo Brooks of Alabama said. “After all, this is America, not the United Nations.”
Democrats, however, have slammed the new proposal as unconstitutional and discriminatory.
“Trump is once again trying to erase people from the census to cling to political power,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). “This isn’t about fairness—it’s about disenfranchisement and racial exclusion.”
What Happens Next
The directive is likely to face immediate court challenges. Legal experts expect lawsuits to be filed within days, arguing that excluding undocumented immigrants from the census is both unconstitutional and impractical.
Whether the courts will uphold the directive remains uncertain, particularly with a 6–3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court. The last time Trump tried to alter census policy, the justices blocked his attempt to add a citizenship question but did not rule directly on the legality of excluding noncitizens from apportionment counts.
For now, the Department of Commerce and the Census Bureau have not released a timeline for when or how the new census would be conducted, nor have they addressed how data from the 2024 presidential election would be used in the process.
