We’re deep into the dog days of the college football offseason. Spring ball is a memory, fall camp isn’t quite here, and right now we’re all just surviving off vibes, speculation, and the occasional preseason rankings drop. So naturally, that means it’s the perfect time to overanalyze ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) rankings.
Let’s be clear: FPI doesn’t matter yet. These are numbers spit out by a bunch of computers fed with stats, schedules, returning production, and vibes of their own (probably). But even though they’re not consequential right now, they’re still interesting. And if you’re a Texas Tech fan trying to pass the time until kickoff, they’re worth a look.
So let’s talk about them—specifically what the latest FPI rankings say about the Red Raiders, and why some of it feels a little surprising.
Wait, Baylor and TCU Are Ranked Above Texas Tech?
Yeah. That was unexpected.
Again, this is less about cold, hard data and more about gut reaction. I’m not going to pretend I understand every algorithm behind the FPI, but it still caught me off guard to see Baylor and TCU both sitting ahead of Texas Tech in the projections. Also... Kansas? Really?
Now, to be fair, Baylor and TCU do have offenses that could put up points in bunches this year. There’s potential there. But given where Texas Tech is in its rebuild/reload and all the investment the program has made lately, it just feels like the Red Raiders should be a tier above those teams, not behind.
As for Kansas, your guess is as good as mine. The Jayhawks are either a rising dark horse or a regression candidate. It depends on the day and which Twitter feed you’re reading.
Texas Tech Has a 0.7% Chance of Going Undefeated And That’s Hilarious
This stat is a gem.
FPI says there’s a 0.7% chance the Red Raiders win out. That’s not a number you hang your hat on—but it’s the kind of tiny, mathematical miracle that makes this sport fun. It’s the same logic that fuels March Madness brackets and late-season playoff scenarios: "There’s a chance."
Now, let’s be real—Texas Tech is not going undefeated. The Big 12 is a chaotic blender of a conference where anyone can lose to anyone on any given Saturday. But it’s fun knowing that even the computers had to admit, "Yeah, technically... it could happen."
So sure, 0.7% is laughably small. But it’s not zero. And as long as there’s a number on the board, Joey McGuire and company have a shot. Sort of.
Can We Please Win More Than 7.9 Games This Year?
Here’s where the conversation gets a little more serious.
ESPN’s FPI projects Texas Tech to win about 7.9 games this season. Which, on paper, isn’t bad. But emotionally? It feels… meh.
This program has put real money and real effort into improving. They snagged a promising defensive coordinator from Houston, an exciting offensive coordinator from Texas State, and made some smart moves in the transfer portal. There’s real momentum, and with Joey McGuire entering Year 4, expectations are rising.
Seven or eight wins just doesn’t feel like enough anymore. Not with this roster. Not with this staff. Not with this much buy-in from the top down. And especially not in a Big 12 that—while unpredictable—is also winnable for the right team.
If McGuire and the Red Raiders are going to make a statement, this is the year to break through the 8-win ceiling.
So Where Does Texas Tech Stand in the Big 12 According to FPI?
Here’s how ESPN’s FPI currently ranks the Big 12:
Kansas State
Arizona State
BYU
Kansas
TCU
Baylor
Texas Tech
UCF
Iowa State
Utah
Colorado
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Houston
So, smack dab in the middle. Seventh in a 16-team conference. That might not be insulting, but it certainly doesn’t scream “breakout season.”
The good news? Texas Tech gets opportunities to prove that projection wrong. That includes a matchup with Arizona State—a team that FPI seems surprisingly high on. The Red Raiders head to Tempe this fall, and that game could end up being a measuring stick for the ceiling of this team.
Final Thoughts: Rankings Don’t Matter—But They Kind of Do
Look, no one is hoisting trophies based on July projections. These rankings don’t mean much right now. But they do reflect how outsiders see your program—and that perception often lags behind the progress made on the ground.
Texas Tech has been building toward something. This offseason has been proof of that. Now, it’s time for the wins to reflect the investment.
So while 7.9 wins and a middle-of-the-pack ranking might not sound terrible, it’s not where this program wants to be. And it’s definitely not where Joey McGuire wants to end the 2025 season.
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