The Big 12 has wasted no time getting its conference battles underway in 2025. The league has leaned into a staggered rollout of league matchups, with a handful of early-season clashes designed to generate intrigue before the full slate begins in Week 5. We’ve already seen Iowa State and Kansas State square off in Dublin during Week 0, and this Friday night Colorado takes on Houston in another early Big 12 clash. By Week 4, a few more teams will dip their toes into league play, but by the time Week 5 rolls around, it’ll be a full-on conference fight.
The preseason “power rankings” and poll chatter have already proven themselves to be shaky ground in this new era of college football. After all, it wasn’t too long ago that Arizona State was projected to finish last and ended up shocking everyone by winning the league title. The transfer portal, NIL, and coaching shifts have created a new world where teams can rise—or collapse—at an unprecedented pace. That uncertainty has only been amplified by the Big 12’s decision to stop publishing an official preseason media poll starting this year.
Still, after three weeks of play, we’re beginning to see which teams have the look of contenders and which ones might already be slipping into the “pretender” category. Let’s break it down.
Contender: Iowa State
Iowa State couldn’t have asked for a better start. The Cyclones opened the year with a massive statement, knocking off Kansas State in Week 0. Even more impressive, the game was technically a home contest for the Wildcats despite being played in Ireland, which only magnified the importance of the Cyclones’ win.
From there, Iowa State didn’t let up. They dismantled FCS opponent South Dakota by a score of 55-7, showing no signs of a post-big-win letdown. But the true turning point came in Week 2. In the Cy-Hawk rivalry, the Cyclones finally got the monkey off their back with their first home win over Iowa since 2011. Sure, Iowa’s offense has been questionable for years, but breaking a more than decade-long home drought against your in-state rival is a massive confidence booster.
This version of Iowa State looks like the most complete team head coach Matt Campbell has put together in Ames. The defense is stingy, the offensive line is improved, and quarterback play has been efficient. The Cyclones will likely be favored in nearly every game they play the rest of the way, and with their early head-to-head advantage over Kansas State, they’ve set themselves up perfectly to control their own destiny.
If Iowa State stays healthy, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be right in the thick of the Big 12 Championship race come December.
Pretender: Kansas State
On the flip side, Kansas State has already hit panic mode. The Wildcats were outplayed in every sense against Iowa State in Week 0, and that hangover seemed to carry into the next two weeks.
First came a narrow escape against FCS opponent North Dakota, a game that left fans wondering if the Wildcats were simply suffering a post-Ireland slump. But those doubts turned into hard truths the following week when Kansas State lost at home to Army—a team that had just been beaten by Tarleton State. That’s not a typo.
The Wildcats entered the season with plenty of optimism, but their offensive execution has been inconsistent, and the defense has struggled to get off the field against inferior opponents. The problems are too fundamental to dismiss as early-season rust. Kansas State still has the talent to reach bowl eligibility, but Big 12 title hopes are already dead in the water.
Contender: Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have been a trendy dark horse in the Big 12 for a few years, and this season might finally be the year they break through. Texas Tech has looked sharp in the early going, blasting Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State to open the season. While those aren’t exactly resume-defining wins, the sheer dominance in those games was telling.
Now the real test begins. Oregon State awaits this weekend in a non-conference clash that will give us the first true measuring stick for the Red Raiders. But the real circle game is in Week 5 when they head to Salt Lake City to face Utah in what could be one of the biggest conference games of the year.
The Red Raiders have the offensive firepower to hang with anyone. Quarterback play has been consistent, and their balance between the run and pass makes them difficult to defend. If the defense can avoid meltdowns against better competition, Texas Tech has all the makings of a legitimate Big 12 title contender.
Pretender: Colorado
The Coach Prime experiment remains a roller coaster, but this year it feels like the train is trending downhill. After last season’s hype-filled start, Colorado opened 2025 with a disappointing home loss to Georgia Tech.
The Buffaloes now turn the page to Big 12 play, traveling to Houston on Friday night. While the Cougars have been red-hot to start the season, neither team has fully established itself as a legitimate contender. A Colorado win would help silence some of the critics, but based on the way this team has looked, it feels like the Buffaloes are all flash and little firepower.
Until the Buffs prove they can win consistently against quality competition, they belong firmly in the pretender category.
Contender: TCU
After last year’s step back, TCU appears ready to return to Big 12 relevance. The Horned Frogs opened the season with a convincing win over a talented North Carolina team coached by Bill Belichick. Yes, that Bill Belichick. That victory alone turned heads and set the tone for what might be a big year in Fort Worth.
The Horned Frogs bring back a wealth of experience on both sides of the ball. Their offense has balance, and the defense has shown flashes of its vintage opportunistic play. The only concern? The schedule.
TCU faces a brutal gauntlet: SMU, Arizona State, a road trip to Kansas State, Iowa State at home, and BYU in Provo. If they make it to the Big 12 Championship, it’ll be one of the most impressive runs in the country. But based on talent and early-season results, they deserve to be in the contender category.
Pretender: Arizona State
Last season’s surprise Big 12 champions came into 2025 as the preseason favorite. But the Sun Devils’ Week 2 collapse against Mississippi State exposed some real issues. Losing to a team projected to finish last in the SEC isn’t a total disaster, but for a supposed conference favorite, it’s a red flag.
Arizona State’s schedule isn’t doing them any favors either. They open Big 12 play with Baylor, fresh off a top-20 win over SMU. Then it’s TCU, followed by a road trip to Utah. Later in the season, they face Texas Tech and Iowa State. That’s a murderer’s row of ranked opponents.
The Sun Devils may not completely bottom out, but repeating as Big 12 champs feels unlikely. With their tough slate and shaky start, they look more like a pretender than a contender this year.
Notable Teams That Could Make a Run
Utah
The Utes have quietly positioned themselves as one of the sneaky favorites in the Big 12. Their schedule is very manageable, with their toughest games—Arizona State and Texas Tech—coming at home in Salt Lake City. That home-field advantage in Rice-Eccles Stadium can’t be overstated.
The only real challenges come on the road against BYU and Kansas. Win one of those, and Utah is in excellent position to make a title push.
BYU
Provo remains one of the toughest road environments in the country, and BYU has looked dominant in the early weeks. The Cougars have physicality in the trenches and a quarterback who can extend plays. Their schedule mirrors Kansas in many ways: road trips to Texas Tech and Iowa State loom large, but every other game feels winnable.
If BYU protects its home turf, it will be in the mix down the stretch.
Kansas
The Jayhawks are no longer a feel-good story; they’re a legitimate football program. Kansas opened 2-0 before falling to Missouri, but the loss came on the road against a strong SEC team. Even in defeat, Kansas proved they can hang with quality opponents.
Quarterback Jalon Daniels has been electric, and the offense has consistently put up points. The key will be the defense. If it can hold up just enough, Kansas has the firepower to crash the Big 12 Championship Game.
Final Thoughts
The Big 12 has quickly become one of the most unpredictable conferences in college football. Iowa State looks like the early team to beat, while Kansas State and Arizona State have already raised serious concerns. Texas Tech and TCU appear poised to challenge, while Colorado continues to flirt with irrelevance despite the spotlight.
Utah, BYU, and Kansas all loom as wildcards that could shake up the title race depending on how the middle of the season plays out.
The beauty of this new era is that nothing is set in stone. A hot stretch, a key injury, or one unexpected upset can flip the script in a matter of weeks. As we head toward the full conference slate in Week 5, one thing is certain: the contenders will begin separating themselves from the pretenders.
