USDA predicts increases in meat production in 2019


By Jessica Domel

Beef, pork, broiler, egg, milk and turkey production are all forecast to grow next year, according to predictions released earlier this week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The forecasts were included in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report.

Beef
USDA forecasts increased beef production in 2019 on anticipated higher slaughter rates and heavier carcass weights.

Fed cattle are forecast up due to relatively strong demand, which USDA predicts will absorb the expected increase in supplies.

U.S. beef exports in 2019 are forecast to be higher.

USDA forecasts they’ll be supported by the larger beef supplies and firm global demand.

Pork
In 2019, pork production is forecast to increase on expected growth in farrowing and pigs per litter.

USDA predicts hog weights to be heavier.

Hog prices in 2019 are forecast above this year’s levels due to relatively strong demand, which USDA said will absorb expected increases in supply due to the growth in farrowing and pigs per litter.

Pork imports to the U.S. are forecast higher.

Exports are also expected to rise on expanding supplies and competitive prices supporting demand.

Poultry
U.S. broiler production is expected to grow in 2019 as the industry continues to respond to favorable broiler prices this year.

Exports are forecast higher on expected continued gains in foreign demand.

In 2019, broiler prices are forecast to be lower than this year due to increasing supplies.

Competition in the meat case from red meat supplies, which are also forecast to grow, will also impact broiler prices.

Egg production is forecast to increase next year in response to favorable prices throughout 2018.

Demand for eggs is expected to remain robust in 2019 in the face of increased production.

Prices next year are forecast to be lower.

USDA does not expect the spike in egg prices that occurred earlier this year to be repeated next year.

Turkey
U.S. turkey numbers and prices are both forecast up in 2019.

According to USDA, turkey production will slowly rise as the price increases.

Prices are expected to increase as demand also rises.

Dairy
American dairies are expected to produce more milk next year as the amount of milk per cow recovers.

Cow numbers are expected to remain near 2018 levels.

According to the USDA, robust global demand for fat and skim-solids is expected to rise in 2019. That is expected to cause commercial exports of those products to also rise.

Fat and skim-solid imports are forecast to be unchanged in 2019.

Cheese, non-fat dry milk and whey prices are forecast to rise on stronger expected domestic and export demand.

Butter prices are likely to be slightly lower.

The all-milk price is forecast at $16.25 to $17.25 per hundredweight. That’s slightly higher than this year.

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